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India-Russia Relations Amid Shifting Geopolitics: Strategic Depth or Tactical Realignment?

by Huma Siddiqui - 20 September, 2025, 12:00 617 Views 0 Comment

External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s recent visit to Moscow in August 2025 and the co-chairing of the 26th India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) marked a critical moment in the evolving India-Russia bilateral relationship.

Coming just months ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s anticipated winter visit to India, and against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the newly imposed U.S. tariffs, the visit underscores India’s continuing commitment to strategic autonomy and multipolar engagement.

This moment is more than a routine diplomatic engagement. It is emblematic of the balancing act New Delhi must perform as it faces increasing pressure from the West while striving to maintain time-tested ties with Moscow.

A Historical Anchor

India-Russia relations have historically been marked by trust, cooperation, and strategic alignment. From Soviet support during India’s formative decades, including the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty and key moments like the Bangladesh Liberation War, to contemporary collaborations in defence, energy, and space, the bilateral partnership has been resilient. The phrase “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” used to describe this relationship is not rhetorical; it is a reflection of decades-long policy continuity.

However, the contours of this partnership have been tested in the post-Ukraine war era, where the global order is increasingly fragmented. While India has refused to align itself with Western efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically or economically, it has also deepened its engagements with the U.S., EU, and Indo-Pacific partners. The challenge, then, is not abandonment but recalibration, and Jaishankar’s visit is a case in point.

Tariffs, Sanctions, and Strategic Choices

The timing of the visit cannot be overlooked. It came just days before the U.S., under President Donald Trump’s second term, announced a sharp 50% tariff on Indian exports, including a punitive 25% levy targeting Indian purchases of Russian crude. This unprecedented move seeks to pressure India into reducing its energy trade with Moscow, a trade that has grown significantly since Western sanctions forced Russia to redirect its oil exports eastward.

Adding to the complexity, the European Union’s 18th sanctions package, adopted in July 2025, introduced tighter restrictions on third-country imports of Russian petroleum products,  a measure that will directly affect India’s refining and re-export economy from mid-2026.

Thus, New Delhi finds itself in a classic geopolitical dilemma: maintaining its diversified energy portfolio and strategic engagement with Russia while absorbing the economic costs of U.S. and EU pressure.

Key Outcomes of the 26th IRIGC-TEC Meeting

Despite the pressure, Jaishankar’s visit demonstrated that India is not retreating from its partnership with Russia. In fact, the 26th IRIGC-TEC session, co-chaired with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, laid out a robust roadmap to deepen bilateral ties across multiple domains.

One of the central takeaways was the push to reach a revised bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030, up from the current trade volume of approximately $68 billion in 2024–25. This comes amid a dramatic five-fold increase in trade since 2021. However, the widening trade imbalance, with Indian imports far outpacing exports, was acknowledged as an urgent area for policy attention.

Other tangible outcomes included:

  • Finalisation of the terms for a Free Trade Agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), aimed at easing trade flows.
  • Agreement to establish new Indian consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg, a move symbolic of deeper regional outreach.
  • Enhanced cooperation in sectors like agriculture, education, skilled labour mobility, nuclear energy, and defence technology transfer.

Jaishankar proposed a reform of the IRIGC-TEC mechanism itself, suggesting inter-sessional meetings, virtual mid-term reviews, and better coordination between the Business Forum and working groups. These are structural upgrades aimed at institutionalising the partnership and avoiding inertia.

Strategic Autonomy in Action

India’s continued engagement with Russia, even as U.S. tariffs loom large, highlights a key tenet of its foreign policy: strategic autonomy. Unlike the Cold War period, today’s multipolar world gives New Delhi greater room to manoeuvre. Rather than being caught in zero-sum alignments, India is actively reshaping relationships based on national interest, resilience, and economic pragmatism.

By not joining Western sanctions on Russia, India has gained access to discounted crude, essential fertilizers, and key defence technologies. At the same time, India’s quiet diplomacy in multilateral platforms like BRICS, SCO, and G20 has allowed it to remain a bridge between the Global South and competing power blocs.

This approach is not without risk. The growing China-Russia axis complicates India’s calculus, especially given the continuing border tensions with Beijing. While Russia historically acted as a counterweight to Chinese power in Asia, its increasing reliance on China post-Ukraine raises concerns about Moscow’s future neutrality in Sino-Indian affairs.

From Defence and Energy to Diversification

Another clear shift in the India-Russia dynamic is the push towards diversification. Traditionally anchored in defence cooperation, with over 60–70% of India’s military assets still of Russian origin,   the relationship is now expanding into newer areas. These include:

  • Skilling and mobility: With Russian interest in importing Indian IT professionals and skilled labour.
  • Education: Increased collaboration between universities and research institutions.
  • Connectivity and logistics: Emphasis on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route.
  • Energy transition: New avenues for cooperation in nuclear and renewable energy, beyond fossil fuels.

This is a pragmatic shift. As defence ties slowly mature and Russian reliability comes under scrutiny post-Ukraine, India is future-proofing the relationship by embedding it across sectors.

Looking Ahead: Putin’s Visit and the Road to the Summit

President Putin’s expected visit to India this winter will likely be a defining moment. The groundwork laid by the August 2025 IRIGC-TEC meeting will serve as the foundation for more strategic decisions at the summit level. Key areas to watch include:

  • Whether India and Russia will finalise the EAEU Free Trade Agreement.
  • Progress on addressing trade imbalance and setting up rupee-ruble payment systems.
  • Concrete agreements in areas like cyber security, AI, and fintech — signalling modernisation of the relationship.
  • India’s navigation of Western pressure and the potential for further U.S. economic retaliation.

An Enduring Partnership in Flux

The India-Russia relationship is not static and is being continuously reshaped by global and domestic factors, and the August 2025 engagements demonstrate this adaptive quality. While challenges like trade imbalance, U.S. tariffs, and China-Russia proximity complicate the picture, India is using this moment to redefine its strategic partnership with Russia, one that goes beyond defence and energy, into technology, human capital, and multilateral coordination.

Whether this marks a deeper strategic alignment or simply a tactical realignment remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: India is determined to preserve its space for independent decision-making in an increasingly polarised world. And in that space, Russia still remains a key, if evolving, partner.

Huma Siddiqui
Author is a seasoned Senior Journalist with over three decades of experience in covering Defence, Space, and the Ministry of External Affairs, with a special focus on strategic affairs. She has expertly blended defence and foreign policy reporting with economic and space diplomacy, offering a comprehensive view of global affairs.
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