2024 was a year defined by the record number of elections held around the globe, with an estimated 3.7 billion people voting across 72 countries [1]. But now that the voting population from across the world have made their decisions, 2025 looks to be a year of significant potential for changes and critical developments within geopolitics, as new leaders backed by fresh mandates seek to assert their national interest in a rapidly changing international framework.
The ongoing crises in Ukraine and Palestine, alongside rapidly changing security conditions within Syria, Sudan and Myanmar, indicate that conflict will continue to occupy a large amount of focus from policymakers in 2025 [2], even though the global appetite for military action is seeming to grow thinner as these wars drag on longer. Furthermore, with the re-entry of President Donald Trump into the geopolitical arena, riding a wave of global right-wing enthusiasm which is set to carry forth into the new year, the emerging multipolar world may be stymied in its development by a return to a hegemonic global order [3].
The redrawing of borders
Throughout the late 2010s and 2020s thus far, the primary theatre of dispute over borders has been within maritime zones, with arguments over the sovereignty of areas within the South-China Sea and Indian Ocean standing as significant hurdles for the development of bilateral relations between regional states [4]. However, as 2025 begins, a number of outstanding disputes and uncertainties over the current lines of land borders stand unresolved, along with the potential for new states or independence movements to emerge.
Both Russia and Israel increased the territory under their control in the last year, with Russia holding onto the five provinces within Ukraine, including Crimea, which it had captured during the nation’s special military operation [5] and Israel taking advantage of Syria’s present instability to expand its control of the Golan Heights and the areas surrounding it [6]. With President Trump promising to end conflicts as soon as possible, 2025 may see formal declarations of annexation from these two nations of the lands they have conquered, redrawing the world map and the land borders of two significant military powers.
The unity of a number of states further remains in question. Although Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham within Syria has attempted to present a reformed, moderate image to the world following its successful toppling of the Assad regime [7], the possibility of secession from the Kurdish or Druze minorities remains a distant possibility [8]. Both Myanmar and Yemen have seen prominent secession movements along ethnic lines emerge during their respective civil wars. As the security situation continues to rapidly change within these nations, with the rebels in Myanmar gaining significant territory against the Tatmadaw [9] and Israel threatening to strike at the Houthis in a similar manner to the country’s operations within Lebanon [10], the concerned ethnicities may see an opportunity presented for their voices to be heard and demands for self-determination to be taken seriously. Finally, rumours have emerged that President Trump may recognise the independence of Somaliland, a self-declared independent country in Northern Somalia, possibly restructuring the dynamics of the Horn of Africa [11].
Redrawing borders, whether through conquest or secession, is a complicated matter within geopolitical and international law contexts and often manifests extreme controversy within international institutions and multilateral organisations. However, with the sheer number of conflict zones around the world, 2025 is likely to see international borders redrawn, reflecting the rapidly shifting security dynamics of the current international theatre.
A global right-wing bloc
The reelection of Donald Trump during the 2024 US Presidential election continued the broad global shift towards right-wing politics in the face of growing economic, security and cultural insecurity. However, President Trump is not just a subscriber to traditional conservative politics, but instead the leader of a unique right-wing ideology which has exported its principles across the globe and laid the foundation for an international movement to grow [12].
President Trump, alongside other global leaders like Hungary’s Victor Orbán, Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, are leading the charge for a new brand of right-wing authoritarianism, which properties national domestic interests and isolationist strategy over the values of liberal world order which took centre-stage throughout the Obama Presidency [13]. These principles include placing tariffs on international trade to protect domestic industries, embracing traditional family and religious values, and skepticism of all international institutions, as demonstrated by Orbán’s repeated disputes with the European Union [14] and Milei’s rebuffing of the BRICS partnership [15]. Alongside these incumbent leaders are political parties such as the AfD in Germany, the Liberal-National coalition in Australia, Reform UK in Britain and the National Rally Group in France, all of which are expected to make significant gains in National and local elections throughout 2025.
The emergence of this new brand of right-wing politics does not adhere to the traditional East-West boundaries of the Cold War, nor the Global North-Global South separation of traditional measures of wealth, as demonstrated by the influx of pro-Trump South American leaders, but instead seeks to unite nations by a shared desire to embrace the characteristics of conservative nationalism and economic policy. This new bloc is poised to come into conflict with large, globalised economies, like China, and left-wing movements across the world, setting the stage for a turbulent 2025.
Waning enthusiasm for warfare
The large-scale destruction and loss of human life which has been brought upon by major conflicts globally has impoverished vulnerable areas and peoples of the world, but brought the international community closer towards a feared international, potentially nuclear conflict [16]. However, as the war in Ukraine has entered its third year and the ongoing situation in Palestine is approaching two years since the initial October 7th attack on Israel, a global resistance towards ongoing conflict and preference for peaceful negotiation has begun to emerge [17].
The international right-wing wave has centred a push for negotiations to end the respective conflicts in Ukraine [18] and Gaza [19], although a notable desire for both Zelensky and Hamas to make concessions to the stronger powers, Israel and Russia, in order to maintain a relative peace. The immediate states surrounding these two zones of fighting have also voiced their desire for an ending to warfare, with pushes from the Arab world, Central Asia and the Balkans advocating for a treaty process and return to the pre-war stability seen throughout the 2010s. President Trump has also indicated his noted preference for peace, asserting consistently that war is bad for business, setting the stage for a prolonged process for de-escalation to potentially begin in the new year [20].
Conclusion
Despite inheriting ongoing crises and challenges that surfaced in 2024, the new year heralds the potential for rapid advancements as nations recalibrate their policies to navigate a shifting international landscape. In 2025, the world enters the second era of a Trump presidency, marked by a reinvigorated conservative agenda from the global superpower. This agenda, supported by a coalition of states rejecting the mainstream ideologies that dominated the post-Cold War order, signals a transformative phase in global politics. The effectiveness of this conservative resurgence will be determined in the years to come, but 2025 stands as a pivotal moment, offering the possibility of mending fractured alliances, reshaping power dynamics, and empowering emerging and established actors alike on the geopolitical stage.
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