Geopolitically, the world is passing through one of its most volatile phases in recent history. Wars are raging from Europe to West Asia, involving state and non-state actors, and with massive civilian casualties, in addition to numerous other conflicts and crises upending regional peace and stability. For instance, in India’s close neighbourhood, the civil war in Myanmar sees no sight of resolution; Bangladesh is still in the midst of a chaotic political transition; and the world is coming to terms with a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. In addition, the impact of climate change is leading to new challenges of disaster response and humanitarian relief plus the exponential growth of new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) is throwing up new opportunities and risks that would require skilful navigation.
India has huge stakes and interests in how this profound geopolitical, geo-economic and technological transition shapes up. India’s rise as one of the largest economies in the world and as the most populous country in the world will mean that it will play a crucial role in how these opportunities and challenges are leveraged not only for its own national interest but also for the greater good. India’s role is also heightened because the world is going through a growing great power rivalry between the United States and China cutting across the political, economic and security dimensions. At the broader strategic level, responding to China’s aggressive rise and its unilateral intentions in Asia, India has evidently developed stronger ties with the United States and its allies, both bilaterally and multilaterally. For instance, during the most recent Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) held in Wilmington, USA, the leaders from India, the US, Australia and Japan declared that “the Quad is more strategically aligned than ever before and is a force for good that delivers real, positive, and enduring impact for the Indo-Pacific.” While for the Quad members, the grouping aims to foster a “free, open, inclusive and rules-based” Indo-Pacific, Beijing vehemently opposes it, categorically alleging it as a means to contain China.
However, New Delhi, simultaneously, opposes any pressure from its partners in the West, to pick sides in the emerging geopolitical scenario. While India moved closer to the US and the broader West to manage China’s influence as a proximate power in Asia, it has also been resolute in its intention to practice strategic autonomy. For instance, India continues to exercise its own foreign policy playbook vis-à-vis China, as seen in the more recent negotiations and agreements leading to the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit at Kazan, Russia and the announcement regarding patrolling arrangements at the India-China border. The BRICS, with its expanded membership, met this year on the theme “BRICS and Global South: Building a Better World Together” very much echoing the call for greater focus on inclusive growth and development in the Global South, pronounced during India’s G20 presidency. “We note the emergence of new centres of power, policy decision-making and economic growth,” the BRICS joint statement said. BRICS emerged as a noteworthy entity at a moment in global politics, when the unquestioned influence of the West on financial decision-making became glaring, and non-representative of 21st-century realities. BRICS representing emerging economies from different regions of the world came together in a politically heterogeneous grouping that has become a potent story for the rise of the non-West in global finance and politics. With a severe economic crisis hitting the United States in particular and Europe too starting in 2008, groups like the G20 gained a new currency and relevance.
As most countries in the world, expressed their desire and support for a multipolar world, the challenge of effective multilateralism has become more pronounced. India’s role in shaping the future of multilateralism is more crucial than ever, as it aims to bridge the concerns of the Global North and the Global South. India’s ability to understand, acknowledge and address the challenges faced by the Global South by working with the developed countries towards aiding the socio-economic development, and infrastructure needs, and meet the demands of a digital era is one of the major drivers of India’s foreign policy.
India’s ties with regional institutions like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and sub-regional institutions like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) are significant mechanisms to plug into the politics and economics of a multipolar Asia. The 21st India-ASEAN summit held in October this year in Vientiane, Lao PDR upheld the value of multilateral cooperation for regional peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Among many other initiatives, India and ASEAN committed to cooperation “to unlock the full potential of safe, secure, responsible, trustworthy AI by promoting international cooperation and further discussions on international governance for AI, considering that the rapid progress of AI has the potential for prosperity and expansion of the global digital economy.”
Although the fears of BRICS taking an anti-West curve might not sound too imminent, at this stage, the dilemma for New Delhi is quite apparent and the task is formidable. In matters of security, India’s growing partnership with the US and its allies is quite discernible at a time when the growing alliance between Russia and China is turning more anti-West. Both Moscow and Beijing allege that the US and its close allies are threatening peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Although New Delhi, does maintain significant ties with all major power poles and with all the new entrants to the BRICS, multi-alignment is facing some rough weather. India’s core membership of the Quad and growing engagements with members of the G7 grouping and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) are not lost to anyone. However, at the same time, as bonhomie between the political leaderships show, India-Russia ties are too important to be sacrificed at the altar of Western partnerships and New Delhi would like to walk its own path in dealing with a proximate Beijing. Such are the outcomes of a geopolitical, geo-economic and technological transition that New Delhi can hardly ignore.
How to balance India’s security and economic interests – and deciding with whom to partner and for what purpose, will remain the test for India’s foreign policy and national security decision-makers. As the geopolitical tensions increase among major powers, and competition becomes more conflictual, India would have to brace up for testing times in its balancing act and in shaping multilateralism for a multipolar world order.
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