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From Fragile Five to Top Five: India’s Economic Renaissance

by Kanchi Batra - 20 June, 2025, 12:00 803 Views 0 Comment

At the First Foundation Day of the Chintan Research Foundation, held on 19th June 2025, Amitabh Kant laid out India’s course toward becoming a $30 trillion economy by 2047. With clarity, urgency, and vision, he not only acknowledged the achievements of the past decade but also articulated the structural shifts necessary to propel the nation forward.

Speaking of India’s current economic standing, Kant noted, “India today is a $4 trillion economy. Our challenge—and our opportunity—is to transform into a $30+ trillion economy by 2047, as envisioned by the Hon’ble Prime Minister.” To achieve this transformation, he stressed the need for sustained growth of 9–10% per annum over the next three decades—a feat previously accomplished only by post-war Japan, South Korea, and, more recently, China.

Reflecting on India’s journey from being one of the ‘fragile five’ economies to now among the top five globally, Kant credited bold structural reforms such as the implementation of GST, RERA, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and corporate tax reductions. These, he said, laid the foundation for a resilient and competitive economy.

A significant portion of his remarks focused on India’s digital leap. “Our 1.4 billion citizens have digital identities. We lead the world in real-time digital payments,” he stated, attributing this success to the integration of Aadhaar, mobile numbers, and bank accounts. He cited the example of startups like MobiKwik, Zerodha, Groww, and Acko, who leveraged digital public infrastructure to innovate in finance, insurance, and investment. “India achieved in 7 years what would otherwise take 50,” he said, quoting the Bank for International Settlements.

Kant also stressed India’s unique approach: “While the West developed proprietary digital systems—Amazon, Google—and China relied on Tencent and Alibaba, India built a public digital infrastructure allowing private innovation. That’s why PhonePe competes with Google Pay, and Paytm with Amazon Pay.”

Infrastructure development formed another key highlight. Citing massive numbers, he said, “We’ve built over 40 million houses—equal to Australia’s population; provided sanitation to over 120 million—more than Germany; piped water to 253 million—more than Brazil; and constructed over 77,000 km of roads.”

On the green front, Kant celebrated India’s renewable energy leadership. “We’ve installed over 230 GW of non-fossil energy capacity and slashed the cost of renewable power from ₹24 to ₹2 per unit.” He also pointed to India’s ambition in green hydrogen and electrolyser manufacturing.

While showcasing India’s progress, he didn’t shy away from challenges. “We face a volatile world—wars in Europe, Middle East crises, and China’s assertiveness. Global trade institutions like the WTO are weakening. Supply chains are fragmenting,” he warned. Additionally, new technologies like AI and quantum computing, though powerful, could “spark future conflicts” without international consensus.

Domestically, India must address labour force participation and sectoral imbalances. “Only about 50% of our population are active economic participants,” he said. With 46% of the workforce still in agriculture and many dependent on subsidies, activating human capital is critical. “Our manufacturing must grow from 16% to 25% of GDP, and we need 10,000 large firms to achieve global competitiveness,” he added.

Equally crucial, he stressed, is investment in human development. “No nation has grown sustainably without improving education, health, nutrition, and learning outcomes.”

In a powerful comparison, he cited the United States’ success in fostering economic dominance through think tanks like Brookings, Carnegie, and the Peterson Institute. “With just 4% of the world’s population, the U.S. commands 26% of global GDP and nearly 50% of global market cap. That’s the power of research and insight,” he said.

Calling for similar institutions in India, Kant stated, “We need bold, independent, and dynamic think tanks—like Chintan Research Foundation—that challenge the status quo, critique constructively, and guide policy through hard research.”

He reflected on India’s legacy of bureaucratic control, cautioning that “India can’t grow at 9–10% without embracing free enterprise. We must dismantle outdated regulations and foster innovation.”

“If India is to become a Viksit Bharat by 2047—a $30+ trillion economy with inclusive, green, and sustained growth—it will need strong, forward-looking institutions to guide the way.”

Kanchi Batra
Kanchi Batra is the Managing Editor of The Diplomatist.
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