At a time when India stands poised to become the world’s third-largest economy, the task ahead is not just about maintaining momentum—it is about overcoming deeply embedded structural challenges. Speaking at the launch of Dr. S.P. Sharma’s latest book titled “India@2024: Leading the Global Economic Order”, Dr. Ajay Dua (IAS), former Secretary, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, provided a nuanced and thought-provoking view of India’s economic trajectory, calling for pragmatic solutions and realistic aspirations.
“We are all aware that when a country is starting from a low base, achieving a growth rate of 7–8% is relatively easier,” Dr. Dua began, drawing parallels with China’s experience of sustained high growth in the 1980s and 1990s. “However,” he noted, “as the economic base expands, maintaining such high levels of growth becomes significantly more challenging.”
The Agricultural Overhang
One of the core issues Dr. Dua addressed was the disproportionate share of the workforce employed in agriculture. “Nearly 46% of our workforce remains employed in agriculture—a figure that is disproportionately high for a country aiming for high productivity and income levels,” he said, referencing Dr. Sharma’s analysis in the book. While agriculture has seen an average growth rate of 3.8% over the past decade, land productivity remains low compared to global standards.
“Enhancing productivity per unit of land and capital is non-negotiable,” Dr. Dua stressed, adding that “some estimates suggest that around 100 million people need to be shifted out of agriculture for India to achieve a balanced and efficient workforce distribution.”
Urban Saturation and Rurban Alternatives
This shift, however, cannot rely solely on existing urban centres. “Our major metropolitan cities are already overburdened,” Dr. Dua cautioned. With the urban population hovering around 36–37%, India must invest in “rural-urban transitional towns.” He emphasised the need to strengthen initiatives like the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Rurban Mission, launched in 2015. “It must be strengthened with robust support from the states, as rural-urban development is as much a state responsibility as it is of the Centre.”
Employment and the Gender Gap
Turning to employment, Dr. Dua pointed out the mismatch between job creation and the expanding workforce. “The sheer volume of new entrants into the labour force each year exceeds the population of many countries,” he remarked, noting the high level of informality in India’s job market.
Importantly, he highlighted the underutilization of female human capital. “We are underutilising 50% of our human capital—our women,” he stated, echoing remarks made earlier by another panellist. While female participation in schemes like MGNREGA has increased, Dr. Dua pointed out that it “reflects more a lack of options than empowerment,” especially as most of this employment is low-skilled and low-paid.
Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
India’s youth is another powerful resource that needs meaningful engagement. “Our median age ensures that people under 35 will continue to make up the majority of our population for decades,” he said. However, he cautioned against complacency: “It is not enough to merely speak about our demographic dividend; we must actively shape it.”
The Case for Domestic-Led Growth
In an increasingly globalised economic discourse, Dr. Dua made a compelling argument for prioritising domestic consumption. “Not every country needs to be obsessively export-oriented,” he said. “India’s per capita income remains modest. Yes, we may become the fourth-largest economy, but the real story lies in our domestic market.”
He underscored, “Our unsatiated internal demand is vast—and this is our strength. The idea of ‘Make in India’ is not just a slogan; it’s a call to invest in a market that is hungry for development.”
He also defended India’s selective protectionist approach, asserting, “India must do what is in its best interest. If that means protecting our nascent industries, so be it. We should not feel apologetic for creating a framework that leverages our capital, manpower, and technology.”
A Vision for 2047
Dr. Dua closed by recognising the contribution of Dr. S.P. Sharma’s book, calling it “Volume One of your magnum opus.” He praised it for providing a grounded yet forward-looking analysis of India’s economic landscape. “It is a rich contribution that will serve as a reference for both academia and business,” he said.
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