The recent Pahalgam terror attack perpetrated by proxies allied to the Pakistan Army has shaken to the core the conscience of all of India’s citizens and, more importantly, drewswift condemnation from world leaders. Several observers link the dastardly attack directly to the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, General Asim Munir’s provocative speech at the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad. General Munir’s diatribe directed at India through references to Pakistan’s inception as the only second state formed based on Islamic faith (Kalima) after Saudi Arabia was no doubt an attempt to ignite passions of his countrymen, rekindle the candle of Islamic fundamentalism that his predecessor General Qamar Bajwa sought to put on the back burner and thereby provoke a ‘Hindu India’. That the strategy to drive a wedge between nationalistic Indians of all faiths has failed is manifest in the swift messages of condemnation from various nations, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, that expressed their outright rejection of all forms of violence, extremism, and targeting of civilians.Even China, which views Pakistan as ‘iron brother’, has condemned the attack notwithstanding their ‘all-weather friendship.’ At this volatile juncture, amidst simmering tensions, there are calls within India to up the ante and provide a befitting reply to Pakistani misadventures. To this effect, Prime Minister Modi, in a strongly worded statement, promised that India would ‘identify, trace, and punish’ those behind the attack. In his words, “India will identify, trace, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.”
The Pakistani Military’s Strategic Posturing
Washington-based analyst Michael Kugelman opines that the government’s response to the attack is likely to be careful and deliberative, emphasising on planning and effectiveness. The risk of an all-out nuclear war, although a theoretical possibility, is unlikely given the fact that the Pakistani military derives its legitimacy in the country’s state of affairs by controlling nearly 30% of the country’s economy. It would thus seek to maintain the status quo through its nuclear arsenal as strategic deterrence, i.e. a defensive position instead of active retaliation. Hence, it would be counterintuitive to expect the Pakistani military establishment operating out of GHQ, Rawalpindi, to disturb the status quo at the cost of affecting boththe privileges and enormous clout of military generals in the country’s administration. Inflammatory rhetoric is to play to the gallery and ultimately not lose its status as the country’s de facto ruler since independence.
Drawing Parallels with the Israel-Hamas Conflict
It is important to draw parallels with and analyse Israel’s response to the infamous October 7, 2023, Islamist terror attack perpetrated by Hamas. Several high-rankingleaders of Hamas had visited Pakistan as recently as last year, with Rawalakote, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) playing host in one such instance where attempts were made to link the terror outfit’s fight against Israel with the jihadist campaign to reclaim their ‘jugular vein’ of Kashmir.
India’s Multi-pronged Response Strategy
India’s response to the heinous attack must be based on threefronts – political, economic, and military. That the Pakistani state is not interested in even negative peace, characterised by an absence of violence, is evident in its antics, let alone the path of positive peace encompassing restoration of violence and constructive resolution of outstanding disputes – having been stabbed repeatedly in its back.National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval has thus rightly described India’s military doctrine in the present times as offensive defensive and no longer just defensive in its approach.
Political Isolation of Pakistan on the World Stage
On the political front, Pakistan is isolated on the world stage today. Its sinister designs are well known to the international community, with the latest attack on innocent tourists exposing its complete disregard for humanitarian norms and thereby justifying its on-and-off position in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. That it received a reprieve only by October 2022 cements its position as a state sponsor of terrorism. India must up the ante and reinvigorate its efforts at ensuring total isolation of Pakistan in the long run and cutting off its aid and supply networks from sympathetic elements in the global commons. Multilateral bodies such as the United Nations and regional groupings like the SCO must be leveraged to canvass India’s cause and lay bare Pakistan’s hollow claims of desiring peace. After all, how can cross-border firing on Indian troops continue unabated while an independent, neutral investigation, as demanded by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, goes on?
Economic Leverage and Strategic Pressure
On the economic front, Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented economic crisis marked by steep rises in food, oil, and gas prices. The Atlantic Council reports on the precipitous decline in the standard of living of ordinary Pakistanis vis-à-vis their South Asian neighbours. The recent attack must be viewed against this backdrop as an attempt to deflect attention from steady domestic discontent over flawed governance towards the enemy, India. It has been cosying up to Chinese investments via active participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, and construction of Gwadar Port and International Airport among other infrastructure projects, in a show of strength – ‘If you can’t beat them, arrange to have them beaten.’ Among the slew of punitive measures announced by India in response to the attack, the Indus Water Treaty being put in abeyance can deal a severe blow to its economy and food security. Cotton production and export make up 8.5% of its GDP, its Basmati rice accounts for 35% of world trade, while hydroelectricity generation contributes to a significant portion of its renewable energy share of 33%. These are thus under threat by the stoppage of water flow. It might reduce power generation, affect industry output, particularly in the sugar and cotton sectors, and even raise electricity costs from the 150% rise since 2021. Pakistan’s power industry is already drowning in a circular debt of $9 trillion. To India’s benefit, farmers in Jammu & Kashmir would gain a larger share of cultivable land through the construction of reservoirs and other water-tapping systems. Farmers facing the brunt of cheaper imports of commodities such as saffron and apples would also be in an advantageous position. Hence, India must seize the initiative and initiate a maximum- pressure campaign against Pakistan. As highlighted earlier, its role in formenting terrorism must be presented as a grave threat to world peace and stability – a threat to foreign investments and assets in the region.
Military Readiness and Responsible Power Projection
In military terms, even though India is the fifth largest military spender globally and spends nearly nine times more than Pakistan, there is a need, as per defence experts, to increase its GDP allocation from the current 1.9% to at least 2.5% to meet its operational requirements and preparedness against two nuclear-armed neighbours. The delivery of the AT-4 anti-armour weapon by Sweden’s Saab company is a shot in the arm for India, enhancing mobility on the battlefield with its lighter weight compared to the existing Carl Gustaf rocket launchers. India must reiterate its position as a responsible nuclear power through its No First Use policy and mutually assured destruction (MAD). Prime Minister Modi giving the armed forces complete operational freedom to decide on the ‘mode, targets and timing of response’ to Pakistan is a welcome step in this direction.
Conclusion
India’s strategic response to the Pahalgam terror attack must be multi-faceted, proportional and timely as follows- simultaneous political isolation of Pakistan, economic re-adjustments through treaty terms, and readiness to deploy military retaliation if warranted. With reactions from other nations condemning the attackand Pakistan increasingly beset by internal vulnerabilities, India has an opportunity to demonstrate its resolve as a responsible significant power while reducing regional instability – Non ducor, duco.
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