With the impetus to climate action and related negotiations, COP or the Conference of the Parties, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has taken centre-stage since 1995. In its nearly three-decade history, the COP process has pulled together 198 parties dedicated to combat climate change at a global level cutting across sustainable development goals, national interests as well and economic opportunities in addressing climate crises. Delivering on crucial climate agreements, the COP trajectory has been full of challenges, pivotal turning points and discourses that have given form to current date climate action initiatives and set the course for future agenda.
The Early Years: COP1 to COP15
The first COP1 in Berlin, 1995, helped recognise that voluntary measures by countries were inadequate and laid the foundation for the Kyoto Protocol, agreed on at COP3 in 1997. This protocol was an important milestone as it introduced legally binding targets for cutting down developed countries’ emissions. Despite the significance, the treaty faced constraints of lack of binding obligations from developing countries and the withdrawal of key players such as the United States.
Over time, limited participation and changes in the global economic environment brought the realization of an integrated approach. At COP15 in Copenhagen, in 2009, the scope expanded to full participation and acceptance of critical requirements of immediate financial and technological aid to the developing world. Although the Copenhagen Accord established a goal of 2°C, it was largely considered a disappointment because of its failure to mandate legally binding commitment and absence of sufficient financial assurance.
The Paris Agreement: A Turning Point
COP21 held in Paris in 2015, marked a historic turning point. For the first time, all participating developed and developing nations agreed to contribute to climate action under the Paris Agreement with the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This agreement introduced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), allowing countries to set their own climate targets based on their circumstances. A key component of the Agreement is Article 6 which holds tremendous potential in scaling up climate action by incentivizing emissions reductions and facilitating voluntary international cooperation in achieving climate goals through market and non-market mechanisms. Central to this Agreement, the buzz on ‘Net Zero’ gained prominence. Net zero refers to the balance between the greenhouse gases emitted and removed; either through afforestation or technological solutions like carbon capture and removal. Achieving net zero in emissions will be consequential to the accomplishment of Paris Agreement targets.
The Agreement came as a big achievement in bringing universal participation and highlighting the need for mobilizing climate finance. Even though developed countries reaffirmed their commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020, it was not met. The non-binding nature of the NDCs posed another challenge with enforcement procedures at bay, leaving implementation to governance imperatives and raising concerns about persisting gaps between pledges and outcomes. At the same time, rules governing Article 6 remained unresolved for several years and carried over to COP25 in Madrid in 2019, where negotiations ended without consensus.
Recent Developments
The last few years, however, have seen the focus shift back to accelerating climate action. Renewed commitments to the 1.5°C target during Glasgow COP26 in 2021, called for a ‘phase-down’ of coal, a first in COP history under the Glasgow Climate Pact. Although it was highly criticized by major fossil fuel producers, negotiations on Article 6 unravelled a rulebook addressing some enduring issues on carbon credit mechanisms. Subsequent COPs focused on finalizing technical details and preparing for the operationalization of Article 6.
COP27 at Sharm El-Sheikh in 2022 remarkably concluded the setting up of the ‘Loss and Damage Fund’, a Global South demand that was long pending. Still short of estimated needs, the fund caters to vulnerable nations hit by climate change-induced disasters and was operationalized through initial pledges of over $600 million during the COP28 at Dubai in 2023. It was also revealed that the world is off-track from Paris Agreement goals and there came an urgency for energy transition to clean sources including considerable stepping up of renewable energy capacity in the fight against climate change. Poor climate finance allocation was again brought to the fore along with the resistance from major fossil-dependent nations in meeting their share of climate action promises.
Deliberations in the most recent COP29 in Baku (2024) hinged around New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQG) for climate finance. In the wake of developing countries’ estimated requirement of nearly $6 trillion by 2030 for climate action plans, as per the UNFCCC Report of the Standing Committee on Finance, $300 billion promised annually would be a mere handout. Nonetheless, in addition to financial commitments, COP29 saw major strides in decade-long negotiations on Article 6 carbon mechanisms such as completion of rules governing country-to-country trading and establishing a new international carbon market fostering cost-effective emissions reduction. Robust monitoring, reporting standards, and safeguards have been established to ensure transparency and environmental integrity.
The role of the Global South in COP negotiations
The Global South has been integral to making COP negotiations meaningful. The very basis of common but differentiated accountability and a consistent urge by member countries has emphasized enough that historically emitting developed countries should take the lead in efforts at tackling climate change. India, with its prominent role in the climate-justice narrative and the thrust for developmental needs, is balancing the scales on obligatory action and policy reforms.
India was at the forefront of COP26, where it announced a very ambitious commitment to reach net zero by 2070 and a target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. India and other developing countries have pushed for the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and securing financial support for adaptation measures.
India and South Africa have underscored the importance of just transition, putting poverty reduction and sustainable development at the heart of widening negotiations at COPs. Just as the Global South has demonstrated exemplary and innovative measures in mitigation, adaptation and building strong resilience, it will have to take on an increasing role in climate finance reforms, for securing adequate and accessible finance right through the grassroots level will define enhancing their NDCs and implementing ambitious climate actions.
Setting the stage for COP30
Over the years, while COPs have drawn attention to lagging climate targets and provided a global forum for plurality in perspectives, the discussions have not been devoid of sticking points and disagreements. Participating countries have faltered on meeting targets as well as having climate funds flowing to geographies that require them the most. Gaps remain in intended action and practice. Whereas the switch on fossils continues to power on, the stark reality of climate setbacks compels an equal force to clean energy development. Additionally, geopolitical issues and sudden fallback from commitments by major nations, safeguarding usage of fossil energy pose serious threats to decarbonization and realizing stipulated climate goals.
COP30 this year, is yet another vital juncture to continue the resolve on climate action. It will involve determined diplomatic efforts, amplified national climate plans and a collective drive towards fair and equitable climate initiatives. From further operationalizing carbon markets to ensuring agreed financial pledges are met, COP30 will be a defining event for advancing the energy transition, key to fructifying decades of global discussions and commitments—an opportunity, momentous to climate diplomacy and achieving long-term well-being.
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