The 21st century has witnessed the United States and India forging a strengthened strategic partnership, underpinned by mutual democratic values, economic synergies, and a shared challenge posed by China. This trilateral dynamic—marked by competition, cooperation, and confrontation—has emerged as a focal point of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency again in 2025, his potential policy trajectory promises both continuityandrecalibration,offeringastarkcontrasttohisfirsttermandthemultilateralistlegacy of Joe Biden.
Donald Trump’s first term was characterized by a transactional approach to foreign policy. His emphasis on bilateralism and economic pragmatism often translated into tangible gains, such as defence deals and the elevation of the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. Trump’s administration revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), signalling a robust commitment to countering China’s assertive posturing in the Indo-Pacific.
However, Trump’s preference for unilateralism often clashed with India’s strategic autonomy, leaving gaps in long-term institutional frameworks. His second term, therefore, might diverge significantly. Having laid a foundation in his first term, Trump could pivot toward addressing systemic challenges, particularly in critical sectors like rare earth supply chains and advanced technology.
In contrast, the Biden administration pursued a more multilateralist and institutionalized approach.Biden’sfocusonshareddemocraticvaluesandclimatecooperationnotonlydeepened US-India ties but also addressed broader global concerns. Programs such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and cooperation on semiconductor supply chains have established India as a crucial partner in reducing reliance on China.
Trump’s return could bring a sharper edge to these efforts. Unlike Biden’s cautious diplomacy, Trumpmayprioritizeeconomicleverageandexpeditedbilateralagreements.However,thiscould risk alienating India if perceived as overreach, particularly given India’s non-aligned posture in global affairs.
ThetradeandconflictoverrareearthmaterialsremaincentraltotheUS-Chinacompetition on the one hand and the US-India partnership on the other. Rare earth elements are critical for advanced technologies, from defence systems to renewable energy. China’s dominance in the global rare earth supply chain gives it significant geopolitical leverage, making this sector a flashpoint in great-power competition.
TheTrumpadministrationpreviouslysoughttoreduceUSdependencyon rare earths in China,but theseeffortslackedstrategicdepth.Incontrast,Biden’sadministrationhasactivelyengagedIndia in diversifying supply chains, aligning with New Delhi’s aspirations to emerge as a global manufacturing hub. This collaboration, however, is still nascent and fraught with challenges, including India’s limited rare earth processing capabilities and protectionist trade policies.
Trump’s second term could intensify this partnership, emphasizing bilateral investments and technologytransferstobolsterIndia’srareearthproduction.Yet,Trump’stransactionalapproach mightcreatefriction,particularlyifeconomicdemandsovershadowstrategiccooperation.India’s balancingactbetweenleveragingUSsupportandmaintainingitsautonomywillremainadefining feature of this engagement.
A pivotal question in analyzing this trilateral relationship is whether US-China relations can be decoupledfromUS-IndiaandChina-Indiaties.Whilethesedynamicsaredeeplyinterlinked,they are not entirely dependent on one another.
Under Trump, US-China relations are likely to remain adversarial, characterized by economic decoupling and strategic rivalry. This antagonism could indirectly benefit US-India relations, as both nations share concerns about China’s assertiveness. However, India’s approach to China is fundamentally different from that of the US. Despite border tensions and economic competition, India avoids overtly aligning with any bloc, prioritizing its strategic autonomy.
The Biden administration’s nuanced strategy sought to compartmentalize US-China relations, cooperating on issues like climate change while competing in technology and trade. Trump’s return could dismantle this balance, adopting a more confrontational stance that might pressure Indiatotakesides.SuchpressurecouldstrainUS-India relations,as India’s non-alignedtradition resists binary choices.
Joe Biden’s administration has left a robust legacy in US-India relations. From advancing the QUADtoenhancingcollaborationincriticaltechnologies,Bidenhasinstitutionalizedkeyaspects ofthepartnership.His emphasisonclimate actionanddemocraticvalueshasalso resonatedwith India’s global aspirations.
For Trump, building on this legacy without reverting to a purely transactional approach will be crucial. A focus on long-term strategic gains, rather than short-term economic benefits, could ensurethepartnership’sresilience.Trump’schallengeliesinaligninghispragmaticinstinctswith the need for institutional frameworks that address shared challenges, from rare earths to regional security.
As Donald Trump prepares for a potential second term, the stakes for US-India relations have never been higher. The partnership’s future hinges on navigating the complexities of the US- China-India dynamic, with rare earths and advanced technology at the forefront. Trump’s policy pivot,ifexecutedwithstrategicforesight,coulddeepentieswithIndiawhileeffectivelycountering China’s influence.
However, the risks of overreach and unilateralism remain significant. Washington will need to carefullycalibrateitsapproach,asIndia’sstrategicautonomyanditsbalancingactbetweenmajor powers present a complex challenge. The Biden administration’s multilateralist achievements provide a strong foundation, but Trump’s ability to build on them without undermining India’s agency will determine the success of his second term.
In an era defined by great-power competition and shifting alliances, the US-India partnership stands as a cornerstone of stability in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s return to power presents an opportunitytoredefinethisrelationship,ensuringitremainsresilientamidstthegeopoliticalwinds of change. Whether this pivot succeeds will depend on Trump’s capacity to align pragmatic policies with a long-term vision for shared prosperity and security.
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