Ten National Elections to Watch in 2025: Key Contests That Could Reshape Regions

After 2024’s “super election year”, when roughly half of the world’s population were called to vote, the 2025 agenda seem a bit emptier. However, critical national elections are lined up for the year 2025 amid the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions, political polarization, anti-establishment sentiment, and economic challenges.

2024 began as a “super election year” with 80 countries across the globe asking their citizens to determine the future of their democracies. It ended as a nightmare for those in power as citizens all over the world, including in the United States and the United Kingdom, sent incumbent parties wrapping. Long-incumbent parties in India, Japan, South Africa, and elsewhere held on to power but saw their figures reduced. The coming twelve months cannot promise the bumper crop of elections we saw during 2024, but voters will still cast their ballots in several important national elections throughout the year – with many of the themes persisting: the impact of negative economic growth, the rise of the far-right and the disastrous implications of war in Europe and the Middle East. We must wait and see if that anti-incumbent mood carries over into 2025.

The list for critical elections in 2025 could grow. The collapse of the French government or the impeachment of President Yoon of South Korea could herald new voting dates next year. Other unplanned elections could materialize as governments fall, whether because of routine parliamentary stratagems, civilian unrest, or coups.

Here are ten key contests that can reshape regions in 2025:

Gabon

General elections are expected to be held in Gabon in 2025. They will be the first elections in the country since the Bongo dynasty was overthrown in the 2023 coup after 56 years of rule. In November, Gabonese citizens voted overwhelmingly in favour of a new constitution which ensures the impossibility for the Bongo family to return to power. The acting junta leader General Brice Oligui Nguema is widely expected to run for the presidential race. This oil-rich state is the seventh in Africa to face a coup. Hence, a smooth transition to democracy can inspire others to follow suit.

Tanzania

Tanzania’s democracy will be put to the test on the ballot next fall. President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to win again for the ruling CCM, which has held power for the last sixty years. She will likely face veteran leader TunduLissu, the current chairperson of Chadema, Tanzania’s main opposition party. Despite promising reforms, critics allege that the current president still uses her predecessor’s authoritarian tactics to silence her opponents. We will closely monitor the election, as China has cemented the position of the current regime by funding several mega-projects in the country, including a railway revitalization project with neighbouring Zambia.

Bolivia

This landlocked Andean state is scheduled to hold its 2025 General Elections on 17^th August. The sitting socialist President Luis Arce has been accused of orchestrating an assassination attempt on his mentor-turned-arch rival, former Indigenous President Evo Morales after it was evident that Morales was willing to run as a Vice-Presidential candidate with Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez running for the top ticket. This can help Manfred Reyes Villa, a conservative who may be able to use the split on the left to advance his own candidacy, a possibility which the US desperately desires to strengthen its anti-left coalition in the south.

Canada

Canadian constitution requires that its next federal election be held by 25^th October 2025, but it could come far sooner. Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, well down by a 23% diminished approval rating over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, faces the possible fall of his fragile coalition government as key allies left him this year. The poll issues are inflation, immigration, and a housing shortage, draped with anxiety about the incoming Trump administration’s promise of imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian exports to the US. Trump has also asked Canada to step up its border vigilance and defence spending in general.

Chile

Chile has gone through a tough political climate since 2021, with two consecutive efforts to select a new constitution going south. The young reformer in incumbent left-wing President Gabriel Boric has failed to deliver the changes he promised. But rather than major constitutional change, Chileans are now more determined to create economic growth and fight drug-related violence. Most polls suggest a likely win for the opposition right-wing coalition Chile Vamos leader Evelyn Matthei, with Jose Antonia Kast of the conservative Republican Party as her probable run-off partner. The 2025 Chilean General Election is scheduled to take place on 16^th November.

Iraq

Although no official dates have been announced, the next Iraqi Parliamentary Elections are expected to take place in 2025. Currently, there are three major political blocs in Iraq – the ruling Coordination Framework coalition, incumbent Prime Minister Al-Sudani and the Sadrist Movement led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. According to media reports, the Shiite political scene in Iraq will be equally divided among these three forces. Hence, whoever wants to capture Baghdad must take the Sunni and Kurdish parties into confidence. Amid the ongoing turmoil in the region, it is to be seen which Shiite bloc receives the blessings of Iran.

Philippines

The 2025 Philippine general election will be held on May 12, 2025, to form the 20th Congress of the Philippines. In the last two years President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos — has pushed his country towards its traditional ally USA, angering China. This move, along with his non-commitment to support his Vice-President Sara Duterte for the position of President in the next election has ensured a frosty relationship between The Philippines’ two most powerful political dynasties – Marcos’s and Duterte’s. Hence, Marcos Jr. must bury the Duterte dynasty while he still can by helping loyalists win.

Germany

Germany is heading towards its fourth snap election in post-war history on 23^rd February 2025, due to the collapse of the Olaf Scholz-led coalition government over policy differences. The election will take place in a challenging phase for Germany where the war in Ukraine is straining its diplomatic position in Europe. It also faces overzealous industrial competition from China and the prospect of Donald Trump launching a trade war along with hot-button domestic topics like migration and greater spending at home. Barring a major surprise, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, will become the next chancellor.

Czech Republic

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025. According to the pollsters, the ANO party of former populist prime minister Andrej Babiš, who is at odds with the EU and is cynical in support of Ukraine, looks set for a big success in this election amid broader malaise and dissatisfaction with the current centre-right SPOLU coalition of PM Petr Fiala and his support for Ukraine. If Babiš wins, he will strengthen the Central European Eurosceptic populist axis further, which is currently constituted by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s populist PM Robert Fico.

Australia

Australia will go to polls on or before 27^th September. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton whom many pollsters have given a slight edge in the race. While in power, Labor has adroitly walked the line of preserving Australia’s deep economic ties to China while pushing back on Beijing’s regional political assertiveness. With Trump helming the Oval Office, neither Albanese nor Dutton is proposing significant changes to U.S.-Australian relations.