Poland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2025 is at a critical convergence, where composite geopolitical and economic dynamics complications intersect to shape Europe’s future path (Saussay, 2024). Two interlinked challenges dominate this landscape: the resurgence of protectionist trade policies under Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States, which can destabilise transatlantic trade, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now entering its fourth year (Bharti, Aryal &Kutsyk, 2024). The conflict, which is amid diminishing external assistance and growing divisions internally, can test Europe’s ability to sustain support for its ally Ukraine. These challenges are deeply interlinked with the potential of the upcoming imposition of rising US tariffs, which can be expected to exacerbate inflationary pressure, already aggravated by disrupted food and energy supply due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine with Russia. Combined, these issues can put pressure on Europe’s economy and strategic unity, which, in a sense, affects its global standing and puts it under strain (Tausendfreund&Kefferpütz, 2024).
Poland’s presidency arrives at the nexus of these crises and is a rare opportunity to get a sense of stability during this volatile period. The country assumes the responsibility of strengthening EU cohesion (Saussay, 2024), alleviating external pressures, and implementing targeted policies, which have the potential to address immediate economic exigencies while advancing sustainability in long-term objectives (Bharti, Aryal &Kutsyk, 2024). By prioritising multifaceted security imperatives steering complicated trade dynamics and enhancing resilience through innovation and diversification, Poland’s leadership can be instrumental in the EU’s working as a unit with unity, which can fortify its standing in this rapidly shifting landscape (García Bercero, Mavroidis& Sapir, 2024). The presidency’s success hinges on its ability to handle and respond to these dual pressures while fostering unity among its members. With a coordinated and strategic approach, Poland can pave the way for a cohesive and self-reliant Europe capable of addressing the issues of today while convincingly outshining amid an uncertain tomorrow (Hatzius, 2024).
Donald Trump’s second term in office foreshadows a resurgence of protectionist policies that deeply impacted EU economies during his previous tenure. Proposed tariffs—ranging from 10–20% on general imports and up to 60% on specific goods such as steel and automobiles—can pose a substantial threat to key European industries (Hatzius, 2024). The EU, whose exports to the United States accounted for €400 billion in 2023, remains heavily reliant on the US market, particularly in sectors such as machinery, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals. As the EU’s largest exporter, Germany faces estimated GDP losses of 0.23% due to these tariffs, illustrating the scale of the challenge(García Bercero, Mavroidis& Sapir, 2024). Likewise, the machinery sector, responsible for contributing €25 billion in annual US exports, faces a substantial risk of decline (García Bercero, Mavroidis& Sapir, 2024). Adding to these losses, the inflation induced by the tariffs can be expected to weaken consumer confidence, erode their purchasing power, and dampen the demand across the bloc.
Poland’s guidance must prioritise addressing these economic risks through a dual-track strategy, balancing immediate mitigation efforts with long-term trade diversification. The EU can reduce its overreliance on the US by advancing trade partnerships with regions such as Mercosur, the Indo-Pacific, and Africa. For instance, finalising the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, expected to generate €4 billion annually in additional exports, would relieve vulnerable industries (Bosone& Stamato, 2024). At the same time, Poland can lead EU-U.S. negotiations leveraging the interconnected nature of transatlantic supply chains such as incorporating European components in US automotive—to evade the expected blanket tariffs (Graham, 2024).
Amidst these efforts, this presidency must prioritise vulnerable industries and advance EU-wide subsidies or tax incentives to help offset potential losses while maintaining long-term sustainability. Increased focus on Green Technology’s vision will improve the EU’s global ranking in innovation and strengthen its competitiveness, helping ease the external forecasted economic pressures, thereby assisting the EU to be resilient against external shocks and ensuring the bloc’s prosperity in the long term (Saussay, 2024).
The Russia-Ukraine war presents a parallel challenge with profound implications for EU security and economic stability. US support for Ukraine, a linchpin of the transatlantic alliance, is expected to wane under Trump’s administration with his campaign rhetoric emphasising “America First” and a pivot away from European conflicts, leaving Europe to shoulder a more significant share of the burden (Deyermond, 2023). Since the start of the war, €185 billion has been spent on aid to the war. However, continuing this amid a deepening internal divide within the bloc is a concern (Tausendfreund&Kefferpütz, 2024).
With its geographical proximity to the conflict and historical advantage, Poland is uniquely positioned to voice over the issue. The priority must be ensuring the continuation of economic, military, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and supporting reconstruction, particularly in vital sectors that offer a dual advantage: stabilising Ukraine’s economy while addressing inflationary pressures within the EU. For example, reinvigorated agricultural exports from Ukraine, which accounted for 15% of the global market before disruption due to the conflict, can resupply the global chain and contribute to economic stability in Europe (Szeptycki, 2020).
Energy security is yet another cornerstone of Europe’s response. The war exposed the EU’s reliance on Russian Gas, which accounted for over 40% of its energy imports before the invasion, creating an urgent need for diversification (Bharti, Aryal &Kutsyk, 2024). Poland’s presidency can direct the EU towards energy independence. Schemes like the European Green Deal, which will potentially mobilise €1 trillion in sustainable investments by 2030 and provide a clear structure for transition to alternate sources of energy and other efforts, can address the disadvantage of trade while also aligning with EU’s broader sustainability goals, ensuring a future without energy disruption (Saussay, 2024).
Poland must also prioritise increased block defence spending to enhance defence mechanisms and bolster military readiness along the eastern border, which is as essential as expanding Frontex’s capability (Tausendfreund&Kefferpütz, 2024). Fostering greater coordination between the EU and NATO will also deter further aggression from threats threatening Europe, demonstrate the bloc’s commitment to its eastern partner, and reinforce Europe’s standing as a unified global Actor.
Poland’s presidency of the European Union in 2025 is a critical moment in history, and the leadership must address the interconnected and complex ongoing challenges of war given the future challenges of Trump’s era tariffs. The delicate interplay between trade and security requires a decisive yet integrative approach to resolving the conflict. Resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilising vital supply chains can alleviate inflationary pressures that the upcoming Tariff threats from the United States can exacerbate. Simultaneously, trade diversification and strengthened industrial policies can enhance the EU’s capacity to support Ukraine while safeguarding its economic resilience(Bosone& Stamato, 2024). By merging these efforts, Poland’s presidency offers a rare chance to cultivate the much-needed synergy to strengthen the bloc economically and also on the geopolitical front(Tausendfreund&Kefferpütz, 2024).
This presidency is not merely a ceremonial exercise but a unique opportunity to redefine and reshape Europe’s trajectory in the face of an increasingly fragmented new global order. Through diversification, strategic investments, and enhanced security measures, Poland can reshape Europe’s approach to these ongoing crises. A firm approach coupled with a rigid commitment to collaboration will ensure that the EU as a unit emerges strong and unified and better equipped to handle future challenges. The success of this presidency will lay a red carpet for a self-reliant and forward-looking Europe that showcases itself as a strong global leader (García Bercero, Mavroidis& Sapir, 2024).
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