The UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 30) convenes in November 2025 in the Brazilian city of Belém, the closest major city to the mouth of the Amazon. Besides the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 30), the event will also host the 20th meeting of the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 20). Further, the seventh meeting of the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 7), the 63rd session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA 63) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI 63) will also meet at Belém.
COP29 attempted to address several critical climate issues, including climate finance, the issue of loss and damage, emissions reduction targets, adaptation and resilience, as well as finding a fine balance in the geopolitical dynamics.
India, with its growing diplomatic clout, emergent economic consolidation and geo-political ambitions has not only got a stage ready during COP30, but also the developing nations would look up to its proactivity.
COP30 will witness the revival of the demand for securing sufficient funding for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts as it still remains a central issue. Historically, developing nations have contributed insignificantly to global emissions. In reality, in the present situation, they bear the brunt of the climate impacts. COP29 saw renewed calls for more substantial financing commitments from wealthier nations to meet the needs of vulnerable countries, with a focus on equity in resource distribution.
The issue of “loss and damage” has gained traction in recent COPs, which gave rise to the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund during COP27 held in Egypt. The event at Baku in 2024 focused on operationalizing this fund, determining how contributions will be made and how resources will be distributed to countries suffering irreversible climate impacts. The challenge remains in persuading wealthier nations to contribute meaningfully to this fund.
Commitments from countries to strengthen their resolution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions will come up again in Brazil. Despite the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by the year 2050, immediate reductions are crucial to staying within the 1.5°C target. Pressure will be mounted on numerous countries to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and outline concrete actions to cut emissions across sectors.
As climate impacts intensify, adaptation efforts are necessary, especially for countries at critical climate risk. Measures to build resilient infrastructure, protect ecosystems, and improve disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions will be back in focus in Belém. India can take the lead to vouch for a more comprehensive and funded approach to adaptation.
The geopolitics of climate change is inextricably tied to the negotiations at COP29. Tensions between developed and developing countries, as well as the role of major emitters, will continue to shape discussions in Brazil. Countries such as the U.S., China, and the EU have substantial influence, and their climate policies will determine whether global targets can be met. Moderating the voices of countries from Africa, South America and Asia will require India’s diplomatic prowess for sure.
India, although adequately equipped with situational awareness, can take further cues from the 2024 G20 Summit. In its presidency, Brazil has displayed its ability to influence major issues such as championing environmental debates and climate negotiations within a bloc representing two-thirds of the world’s population, 85 per cent of global GDP, 80 per cent of emissions, and 75 per cent of international trade. However, it will require the proactive role of a country like India during COP30 to effect measures to accelerate the expansion of financial flows aimed at implementing climate actions, ecological transformation and strengthening the role of multilateral banks in the fight against climate change.
Shift from Negotiation to Implementation
The agreements reached at COP29 in Baku, in all likelihood, fell short of what analysts had hoped for, especially the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance under the Paris Agreement.
Despite intense discussions and wide participation, one of the key areas—climate finance for vulnerable regions—remained unresolved. While developed nations pledged USD 300 billion annually by 2035 to assist developing countries in tackling climate change impacts and transitioning to cleaner energy, as a prominent critic, India has already advocated that this figure falls far short of the estimated USD 1.3 trillion required each year.
India, in alliance and concurrence with host Brazil, Nigeria and other countries, has an opportunity to advocate for making the shift from negotiation to implementation in the area of climate finance during COP30.
India, an ambitious diplomatic powerhouse, can make the best use of common interests with emerging economies such as Brazil, besides that of the Global South.
Major Emitters and the Global South: India is looked up to
India has showcased its diplomatic intent in general and its principled stance in particular during COP29 this year. India, in particular, has expressed disappointment over the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), calling it inadequate for the Global South’s needs.
The actions of the world’s largest emitters such as China, the U.S., and the European Union, remained critical to the success of COP29. The fact remained unchanged for COP30 too.
Despite rejoining the Paris Agreement, the U.S. faces domestic political challenges, while China must balance development with climate commitments. The EU has taken a strong stance on climate action but grapples with internal challenges, particularly energy security concerns exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
The Global South, including nations in Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific Islands, continues to call for climate justice and equitable treatment in negotiations. These countries are disproportionately affected by climate change but contribute little to global emissions. Their calls for more financial and technical support, particularly for adaptation, loss and damage, and mitigation, were central to the discussions.
Challenges Ahead: Political Will and Global Pressures
Despite heightened awareness of the climate crisis, several challenges loom over COP30, and beyond. The lack of political will remains a significant barrier to meaningful action. Governments face domestic pressures—economic concerns, political opposition, and the influence of fossil fuel industries—that often lead to weak climate pledges and slow implementation of policies.
Climate justice remains a thorny issue, as countries in the Global South demand that wealthy nations take on a larger share of responsibility due to their historical emissions.
Even if ambitious targets are set, the real challenge lies in translating commitments into concrete action. Many countries face financial and governance constraints that hinder their ability to implement effective climate plans.
Rising inflation, energy crises, and geopolitical tensions may divert attention from climate goals, especially in countries dealing with economic instability.
India as a beacon of hope
Evidence shows that democratic governments are more engaged with multilateral environmental agreements than authoritarian regimes and that established and functioning democracies, in particular those with low levels of corruption, achieve better climate change mitigation results and more participatory adaptation initiatives.
India, the largest democracy and the most populous country on earth, has responsibilities in leading climate negotiations, and actions.
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