The US presidential elections are one of those few global events that attract the eyeballs of people around the world. Although the USA might not be the sole hegemon of the immediate post-Cold War era, it continues to remain the most powerful country in terms of military might, technological prowess and economic heft. Therefore, who runs America has implications not only for the politics and future of the USA but also for the trajectory of geopolitics and global world order. Trump became the only second person in the history of the USA, after Grover Cleveland, to be re-elected twice to the office of President for non-consecutive terms. His outlandish, fierce, controversial and unpredictable traits of personality as exemplified by his speeches and media interactions make him an intriguing figure, who one may either like or dislike but definitely cannot ignore.
His re-election is indicative of both disenchantment with the Biden administration as well as the substantial support for the policies he championed in his first term as a US president. Taking cues from his style of administration in the first term, it would not come across as a surprise that ‘America First’ will remain the fulcrum of his policies, thereby resulting in reduced involvement of the US in the multilateral forums that have less significance for its interest. Experts argue that America First is not specifically unique to Trump’s administration alone. After all, every leader of a nation in a realist scenario would like to keep the interest of his country ahead of others. However, what makes Trump’s approach distinctive from his predecessors is what C Raja Mohan describes as the departure from “ideological purity” in following concepts such as “liberal internationalism,” “America’s global leadership,” “the rules-based order,” and “multilateralism”.
[i] Even though Trump and his supporters argue that “America First Does Not Mean America Alone”,[ii] it will only be judged by the decisions taken as to whether it actually becomes a reality or remains rhetoric. But a few can deny that his comeback has inevitably further heightened the discussion and raised the question mark around the bleak future of climate change negotiations, uncertainty around the future of multilateral institutions such as the UN and WTO, anxiety around the question of immigration and the protectionist trade measures with long term implications.
Trump had described climate change as a “hoax”, dismissing the concerns around it as “mythical” and highly exaggerated to the detriment of the USA’s interest. It was under his presidency that the US formally withdrew from the Paris Climate Change framework in 2020— a decision which was later reversed by the Biden Administration. With Trump coming back to power again, the climate change negotiations could see even lesser commitments by the US, thereby jeopardizing them from achieving their stated objectives. While the USA’s withdrawal from the multilateral institutions such as the United Nations (UN), United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), World Trade Organisation (WTO), and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among others is not a characteristic only specific to Trump’s presidency and is rather a part of larger strategic calculation[iii]; however with Trump at the helm of the power it gets more intensified. This could further create an even more crisis of credibility for the multilateral institutions which have been under constant criticism because of their inability to live up to their mandate, particularly in failing to reign in ongoing conflicts. Another important issue that has contributed immensely to Trump’s comeback is the anxiety around illegal immigration which Trump could successfully tap into to mobilize voters. His victory has further brought this issue to the centre stage of political discourse. So much so that it has the strong potential to embolden the sentiments of xenophobia and blatant dislike for non-native people residing in the US, thereby posing significant psychological barriers and legal complications for those aspiring to move to the US. Moreover, the spillover effects of this trend could infect many other countries, causing further obstacles for even genuine immigrants to move to countries of their choice for work or other related activities. In addition to this, the emphasis of Trump on the protectionist trade policies in his first term could see further resemblance in his next tenure. This is evident in his affinity for the ‘tariff’—which he described as the “most beautiful word in dictionary”[iv]. Hence, it’s no surprise that his second term, in continuation of the Biden administration, would witness high tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, with ramifications for global trade. Chinese state media has already warned of serious implications with both countries getting embroiled in a “tariff war” if Trump went ahead with fulfilling his claim of imposing a sixty percent tariff on imported goods from China.
At a time when the world continues to be ravaged by the Russia-Ukraine war and the ever-escalating conflicts in the Middle East, it will be a daunting task for the Trump administration to play an effective role in bringing the situation under control. Trump has already been critical of the US aid to Ukraine by the results and Biden administration, calling it a sheer waste of money without yielding any positive outcomes and even claimed to stop the war in just one day if he assumed office. His staunch support for Israel is also an open secret. In 2017, Trump decided to shift the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, thereby recognizing Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel. Later in 2019, his administration officially recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the territory of Golan Heights—a disputed territory between Israel and Syria—reversing the decades-old US policy. As promising as it may sound, it remains unclear as to how his poll promise of stopping the war in Ukraine and bringing peace in the Middle East will be made into a reality. And there is no denying that it’s easier said than done. That’s where the big challenge lies before him to actually ‘walk the talk’. The policy of his administration with respect to the ongoing conflict will go down in the annals of history as one of the major hits or flops of his foreign policy, instrumental in shaping his own political legacy as an astute and effective deal-breaker.
Trump’s comeback to power has also left many in Europe quite jittery. His frustration with NATO members becoming a burden on the US exchequer is pretty evident. One of his remarks in a recent political rally seemed to encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” with the NATO members who didn’t meet their defence spending target of the alliance.[v] Now with Trump 2.0, European countries would have more reasons than before to strengthen their own security architecture to be prepared to withstand any impending danger without necessarily relying on the USA to come to their rescue. Prof. Happymon Jacob describes it as the beginning of “securitisation of European geopolitics” wherein “for the first time since the end of World War II, Europeans will develop their own military strategies, spend more on defence, and go back to the hard business of geopolitics”[vi].
India and Trump 2.0
The re-election of Trump has left New Delhi with more optimism. One of the reasons being attributed to this is the personal bonhomie between PM Modi and President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s strong views on immigration and political Islam had found great resonance with the political establishment in New Delhi under PM Modi. This is one of the reasons that the common supporters of PM Modi in India who take an interest in the US elections are mostly those who would have obvious reasons to cheer the victory of Trump. The current establishment in New Delhi has many areas of convergence with the Republican Party’s right-leaning positions on various issues, which also includes the shared resentment towards left liberals. While Trump’s foreign policy approach has been described as “transactional”—based on the principle of give and take—New Delhi will have to build on the gains made during Trump 1.0 and Biden administration, especially in the domain of defence and strategic issues which have seen both countries solidifying their partnership in the past some years. For Trump 2.0, China is likely to remain the key challenger to its dominance in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, therefore New Delhi emerges as a natural partner, particularly in the backdrop of the tumultuous bilateral relations between India and China. However, it is very evident that there remain challenges such as higher tariffs on Indian goods, H-1B visa related restrictions having serious implications for the Indian IT sector and diverging views while cooperating at the multilateral levels on issues of climate, trade etc. among others which would require a dexterous approach from the part of New Delhi to be able to build on the partnership made during Trump 1.0 and Biden’s presidency.
Conclusion
Trump’s resurgence is indicative of a world order, which will be driven more by realist principles of international relations, wherein economic, military and technological dominance would continue to play an even more prominent role in determining the course of events and trajectory of world order. The world could see more of Morgenthau’s realpolitik around the supremacy of ‘national interest’—blended with Trump’s own personality trait which many describe as ‘unpredictable’ and ‘grandiose’— manifesting itself in a more prominent manner. This could further drive the countries into taking more competitive, protectionist and uncompromising policy stances while dealing with one another to extract the maximum out of the bilateral and multilateral engagements. While there are plausible reasons for New Delhi to not be ‘nervous’ with Trump’s victory, Trump’s remarks in the past blaming India for “job theft” and being a “currency manipulator” would act as a guiding light for it to navigate its bilateral relations with caution without being too overwhelmed by optimism to take the sight away from ‘mutual interest’ based dynamics of the relationship.
References:
[i] C Raja Mohan, “In Trump 2.0, ‘the art of the deal’ may guide diplomacy”. The Indian Express. 20 November 2024 Available at https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/c-raja-mohan-writes-in-trump-2-0-the-art-of-the-deal-may-guide-diplomacy-9678545/ (accessed on 25 November 2024)
[ii] “US President Donald Trump: ‘America First Does Not Mean America Alone” World Economic Forum. 26 January 2018. Available at https://www.weforum.org/press/2018/01/us-president-donald-trump-america-first-does-not-mean-america-alone/ (accessed on 26 November 2024)
[iii] Tim Heinkelmann-Wild, “Europe must prepare for US withdrawal from multilateralism – under Trump or Harris”. London School of Economics. 29 October 2024. Available at https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2024/10/29/europe-must-prepare-for-us-withdrawal-from-multilateralism-under-trump-or-harris/ (accessed on 26 November 2024)
[iv] “‘The most beautiful word in the dictionary’: Trump touts tariffs at Chicago forum”, Daily Herald. 15 October 2024. Available at https://www.dailyherald.com/20241015/nation-and-world-politics/the-most-beautiful-word-in-the-dictionary-trump-touts-tariffs-at-chicago-forum/. (accessed on 27 November 2024)
[v] “Trump says he would encourage Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to any NATO country that doesn’t pay enough”, CNN. 11 February 2024. Available at https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html (accessed on 28 November 2024)
[vi] Happymon Jacob, “Grand Strategy | The Trump inflection on US foreign policy”. The Hindustan Times. 07 November 2024. Available at https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/grand-strategy-the-trump-inflection-on-us-foreign-policy-101730977553722.html (accessed on 29th November 2024)
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