As Donald Trump will assume office for the second time, it’s expected that he will seek to reassume the strategic significance of the Quadrilateral Security Initiative. To start with, Donald Trump will attend the Quad summit scheduled to be held in Delhi next year which was postponed this year due to elections in the United States.
The original Quadrilateral Security Initiative was a proposed maritime alliance that included the United States, Japan and Australia, with India as a reluctant partner which has changed in recent times. It has rebadged as “Quad 2.0” because India is now more active in the nascent alliance, including in the western Pacific, and much more embedded in US and Australian maritime strategic thinking on the Indo-Pacific.
The Quad 2.0 focuses on the Indo-Pacific as it is understood that China has concentrated on expanding the South Sea Fleet rather than the North and East Sea Fleets in the last ten years warranting an adjustment in focus to the broader notion of the Indo-Pacific, rather than the Asia-Pacific, which excludes the western Indian Ocean.
The operational significance of Quad 2.0 will be reflected in the co-operation between various US operational commands and those of the proposed maritime partners. The Indian
Navy, for instance, can be expected to increase its co-operation with the US Central, African and Pacific Commands, thus bringing it in line with Japan and Australia.
Similarly, another important aspect that could be fast-tracked with closer co-operation is India’s quest to get US technology for its aircraft carriers. It is understood that the Indian Navy’s request for the supply of the Electromagnetic Launch System (EMLAS) built by General Atomics for its future aircraft carriers has been reportedly accepted by the US administration.
India is also expected to undertake joint projects with Japan and the United States to install sound surveillance sensors in the vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This is an important element in controlling the Indian Ocean operations of China’s Southern Fleet and monitoring its activities. Australia could join in the installation of the sound sensors as it will help Canberra to project its influence in the Indian Ocean and, in so doing, aid in tracking the movements of Chinese submarines in the wider Indo-Pacific which will be facilitated by Japan also.
On the other hand, India may nudge him on the Obama-era “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia strategy, which had set specific targets for relocating the US military away from the Middle East and concentrating maximum US naval assets to ring-fence China in its backyard. The above policy is an offshoot of the US Grand Strategy based on Nicholas Spykman’s geostrategic vision. Spykman emphasised that the US needed partners in the Rimland to counter the rise of the Heartland (Soviet Union) and the Middle Kingdom (China).
Another school of geo-strategy was put forward by Alfred Thayer Mahan who said that “Whoever controls the world oceans control the world” and predicted the rise of both India and China as early in the 20th century. Therefore, the United States’ Grand Strategy in the 21st century is clearly seen as an aim to thwart the maritime ambition of Beijing. Then there is the military aspect of foreign policy. Since George W Bush the US has been over-reliant on the military as a blunt instrument of foreign policy to the detriment of diplomacy.
The traditional dictum that the military should be used only when diplomacy fails was during the Trump administration. The significance of the Quad assumes more importance as Washington is too embroiled in the AUKUS strategic umbrella where India is too left out. Therefore India will urge the Trump administration to see that the Quad is taken more seriously than before as it heads towards the Quad summit next year.
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