As America goes to the polls to elect its 60th President in November, expectations are that there will be both a change of guard and continuity at the White House in Washington, with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris poised to win the election. If she does win and takes office as President, it will be at a time when the US is a declining global power, confronted by rising and resurgent countries, and a lack of consensus on how nation-states should behave in such transitional times.
International Demands
Internally, Kamala Harris will need to address a significant number of foreign policy demands from the left-wing of her party, not only to win the election but to achieve stability within the government afterward. She will attempt to do so incrementally rather than radically, but the bottom line is that these changes are necessary, given the times we live in.
There are hardcore aspects of foreign policy that Kamala Harris and her team must address, particularly regarding the military aspect of US foreign policy.
Former President George W. Bush (2001–2009) made the military a blunt instrument of his foreign policy, to the detriment of diplomacy. The traditional view that the military should be used only when diplomacy fails has long been discarded. The Trump administration did not seem to understand that “military diplomacy” is not always about the deployment, threat, and use of force. The relationship between diplomacy and military force is not a zero-sum game.
The approach to this dynamic must change.
Hillary Clinton: Four D’s
Former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has written about the need to reconsider the “Four D’s” of foreign policy: Defence, Diplomacy, Development, and the Domestic Sources of US international relations. Like Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama, she remains wedded to the liberal internationalist school of thought, which considers market economies and democratic politics the best combination for national and international governance.
In this context, if the Democrats come to power, the US is expected to return to multilateralism by strengthening the role of the United Nations, with India and New Zealand becoming significant beneficiaries. India will likely push for the expansion of the Security Council and campaign for permanent membership, with or without veto power.
Stronger Stance on China
The US is expected to take a stronger stance on Chinese influence in the Pacific, which will include a reassertion of US naval dominance in the South Pacific waterways and sea lanes of communication used by China for trade. It will also prioritize US defense ties with countries surrounding China. This increased commitment to regional security will be supported by recent US-Australia and US-New Zealand security agreements, bolstering the US military relationship with both countries.
As part of this enhanced commitment to bilateral defence ties in the Western Pacific, the US will continue to work on cementing its chain of security partners throughout the region. If Kamala Harris leads under a Democratic government, progressive politics are expected to gain traction in democratic countries, giving centre-left parties a chance to claim power with popular mandates, as seen in New Zealand, where the Labour Party won elections.
Additionally, Kamala Harris is expected to strengthen the Quad. The Quad was conceived in August 2007 in Manila during a meeting between the Prime Ministers of India, Japan, Australia, and the Vice President of the United States. It was initially seen as a security forum to rein in Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and re-establish a rules-based international order. Although, Quad 1.0 lost momentum, Quad 2.0 has revived, driven by the partner countries’ renewed commitment to addressing strategic challenges from China, such as aggressive territorial claims, freedom of navigation concerns, debt traps, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
A Shift in Strategic Calculus
The military aspect of foreign policy remains critical. Since the presidency of George W. Bush, the US has been overly reliant on the military as a blunt instrument of foreign policy, often to the detriment of diplomacy. The traditional understanding that the military should be used only when diplomacy fails was overlooked, particularly under the Trump administration. The relationship between diplomacy and military force should not be seen as a zero-sum game, and this approach will change under new leadership.
As Vice President, Kamala Harris was an advocate for Obama’s “pivot to Asia.” However, she is unlikely to replace Trump’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which focuses on drawing countries in the region into a broader coalition of democracies to counter China’s regional influence.
The Democrats will also reconsider the “Four D’s” of foreign policy: defence, diplomacy, development, and the domestic sources of US international relations. Although, the Democrats remain committed to the liberal internationalist view that market economies and democratic politics form the best combination for national and international politics, the changing global context calls for a review of the priorities placed on these four pillars.
There is even speculation that Hillary Clinton might make an excellent Secretary of Defense if she is willing to take the job. Regardless, much work needs to be done. The US requires experienced hands to undo the damage done, while also adopting a new ideological approach in the post-Trump era.
Rebalancing Strategy in Asia-Pacific
The US is expected to take a stronger line on Chinese influence in the Pacific. This will include reasserting US naval dominance in the wider Indo-Pacific waterways and sea lanes used by China for trade and prioritizing US defence ties with countries surrounding China. The US will work to strengthen its chain of security partners throughout the region, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand. Improved security ties with Malaysia and Vietnam, both of which have their concerns about Chinese expansionism, will also be pursued.
US defence treaties with Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines are seen as strategic commitments to the security of these countries. The US will continue to reassure its allies that it stands by them in the face of an increasingly assertive China.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the US under a Democratic administration is expected to continue its strategic assertiveness while making changes to the existing status quo in international relations. The rebalancing strategy will be a key component of US foreign policy as it seeks to engage more actively in the Indo-Pacific region while addressing the complex challenges posed by China and other global powers.
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