China’s geographical location is in the Indo-Pacific, surrounded by the South China Sea (SCS), the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean. China’s rise and increased economic and strategic clout in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are leading to a new balance of power in the region. The United States (US) perceives the rise of China as a direct challenge to its dominance and influence, acknowledging that China is the only competitor with both the intent and power to reshape the international order.
The South China Sea is a semi-enclosed sea located in the Indo-Pacific region, stretching south to the Strait of Malacca in Singapore and Malaysia, and north to the Taiwan Strait. The Strait of Malacca connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean through the SCS. As a major route for international trade, the South China Sea is of immense importance to China and has, in recent years, witnessed a number of disputes.
The South China Sea is rich in natural resources and serves as a vital trade route, with about one-third of global maritime traffic connecting the major economies of Asia with markets in Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Recent claims on its rich natural resources and competing territorial claims among countries in the region, particularly with China, have led to tensions and standoffs in the sea. Historical claims and counterclaims over various islands and reefs have exacerbated the complex dynamics in the region, increasing the risks of sudden conflict in addition to the dispute over Taiwan.
China has claimed sovereignty over large swathes of the South China Sea since 2009 based on its nine-dash line. This U-shaped nine-dash line was established in the 1940s by a Chinese geographer and appears on official maps, with both China and Taiwan officially claiming ownership of the South China Sea. The two primary areas of recent contestation are the Spratly and Paracel Islands, although disputes between China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan have persisted for centuries.
The concept of the nine-dash line has existed since 1947, but earlier Chinese maps did not emphasize it. However, in 2009, China submitted a map marking the nine-dash line to the UN in a dispute with Vietnam, signalling its claim that the ocean, islands, and reefs all belong to China, with China asserting sovereign rights over land, water, and seabed within the area. As the concept of the nine-dash line directly contravenes the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), disputes in the SCS have multiplied, with claims and counterclaims escalating as China refused to adhere to the ruling of the arbitration tribunal under UNCLOS in its dispute with the Philippines over the Spratly Islands.
The US has sent naval ships near the disputed islands in what it calls freedom of navigation operations, given its role as a net security provider to allied countries in the region.
The strategic location of the South China Sea has positioned it at the intersection of great power contestation. China perceives it as its exclusive zone of influence and seeks to settle territorial disputes with various countries on its terms, aiming to upend the existing balance of world power dominated by the US. The disputes that China is involved in regarding the South China Sea include issues related to Taiwan, the Spratly and Paracel Islands, and artificial reefs it has built for military bases and equipment.
Amidst rapid geopolitical shifts, there is increasing contestation between competing powers vying for geopolitical space and influence across global strategic locations, including in the SCS. The Indo-Pacific concept, an integral and intrinsic component of global geopolitics, encompasses the maritime space between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, including the contiguous seas of East Asia and Southeast Asia as a single continuum.
The shifting sands of geopolitics have led to dynamic geo-economic and geopolitical realignments worldwide. Combined with China’s emergence as an important global player, this has brought the disputes in the SCS into prominence in recent years. China has adopted a disruptive and strong-arm approach to territorial disputes with nations in the SCS, perceiving this as the best way to resolve issues in its favour, given the immense economic and geo-strategic advantages that would accrue from Chinese sovereignty over the claimed territories, which are rich in oil, minerals, and substantial fish and marine resources. Additionally, the islands and shoals would provide space for military bases, enabling China to counter US dominance and influence in the region and to control vital Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs).
As China adopts an assertive approach to its maritime claims and increases its footprint in the region through building ports and connectivity projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it challenges the existing balance of power, partly attributed to the relative decline of US influence. China has been critical of the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), viewing them as attempts to counter China and maintain US dominance. The formation of the QUAD, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, has raised concerns in China, although it has sought to downplay the impact. However, the establishment of the military cooperation-oriented AUKUS, consisting of Australia, the UK, and the US, drew a sharp response from China, which views it as an attempt to undermine regional peace and stability.
The world is at an interesting inflection point, where new power centers are emerging to challenge existing geopolitical constructs and governance architecture, aiming to establish a new multipolar world order. In this evolving landscape, China sees itself as the preeminent power in the Asia-Pacific region and aspires to challenge the US as the main superpower. This projected geopolitical scenario is unacceptable to the US and other countries, including India, Japan, and Australia. The disputes in the SCS have so far been contained, but the risks of escalation remain high, and the geopolitical implications of a conflict arising after the two ongoing wars would be grave for the existing world order and peace, threatening to undo the current global construct.
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