Of late when everyone’s gaze in India was fixed on FM Sitharaman’s budgetary engineering, more than 6,600 kilometres away, France, another robust parliamentary democracy was reeling under the cusp of a new political challenge. However, it wouldn’t be too much to compare the twin situations with the semblance that the regime in each case is facing the daunting challenge of navigating the shoals of a complex landscape.
France is a small country in Europe in terms of geographical size and population, albeit it is by far the largest country in Western Europe. Here, our focus is not on the country’s topographic morphology but on the twist of its domestic politics that engenders a unique type of motley coalition. Will it direct France and for that matter, the entire gamut of West European democracy towards a new flicker of hope when war clouds are intensifying here and there and longue duree of an overarching crisis unfolds, is indeed a difficult conjecture to unravel.
Since the Revolution of 1789, France is perhaps the only country that has undergone 16 constitutions under which many momentous experiments have taken place, all revealing the conviction of the people in this political axiom that a parliamentary government is a genuinely representative government whereas monarchical or dynastic alternative is not. Not only that but democratic government must also be both parliamentary and republican in that the French system conflates the institutional form with a strong sense of individual rights and civic virtues.
The current Fifth French Republic is a hybrid form of parliamentary and presidential system of government. However, the power of the President in the French Republic is so overarching that the outside world only recognises the Presidential election as the pivotal election of that country. However, in France, the parliamentary elections happened so far behind sort of a veil. Moreover, despite the hype, ordinary Europeans were not aware of the nitty-gritty of the European Union Election.
But a tectonic shift has occurred in 2024. The Far-Right swept the election last June with a bang. Despite, not getting an absolute majority, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s the ‘National Rally’ this time went far ahead of other political parties. The success of this party is just spectacular with record support of one and half crores of the electorate. The ‘Popular Front’ of the left also did quite well to be placed in the second row and the ‘Liberal Alliance’ of Emmanuel Macron with a centrist approach came up to the third row respectively.
Interestingly, in contemporary times new trends and dramatic shifts are emerging to shape several prominent multiparty democracies of Europe like Italy. The case of France is a cogent pointer to the recent permutation. The election campaigns in the first phase were directed at defeating the followers of Macron. But the subsequent twist was a jolt to the Far-Right when in order to stop their entry into the veritable powerhouse, a ‘Republican Front’ was formed overnight between Macron’s party and the party of the Leftists with an expedient compromise. Therefore, it is no longer a three-way fight. In constituencies, where the ‘National Rally’ is likely to win, a ‘one against one’ strategy was devised leading to the tough decision of withdrawing of even 185 candidates of the rival alliance partners from the election race.
Thus, the Left candidates reaped tremendous benefits from the election. The final electoral outcome put the Left in the first place, Macron’s party in the second place and the Far-Right coalition in third place. The parliamentary elections of France are a shining example to the world of how to defeat neo-fascism by making a larger democratic coalition. The virus of ultra-nationalism, and xenophobic hatred towards ‘other’ cultural identity—i.e., targeting immigrants plus populist overtone in electoral rhetoric were the features of this lurking neo-fascist authoritarianism. Hopefully, the democracy-loving people of India have much to learn from this model.
Of Course, it has a positive as well as a negative aspect. It should be remembered here that as a single party, ‘National Rally’ won most of the seats since the maximum i.e., 32.05 per cent of the electorate voted for them. A question may naturally arise here: how did the ultra-nationalist proclivity become so powerful in the country of the great French Revolution? It will be understood if we look back a little to the past scenario of France.
The seeds of this politics germinated in that country in the later part of the 19th century. This was followed by Hitler’s puppet government in Vichy during World War II led by Philippe Pétain. Thereafter complex evolution of French politics, especially its conservative reaction to political instability in the early 1950s, the stormy phase of student protests in mid-1968 highlighting the shift towards anti-establishment sentiments, France’s tussle with Britain, the Oil crisis in the early 1970s followed by economic recession and most prominently advent of the decade of globalization, informalization of labour, job loss and the influx of immigrants from the Middle east triggering debate on shallow multiculturalism are some of the key factors that left seminal influence in shaping the evolving French politics. It was this fertile ground that led to the alienation of traditional political parties while giving rise to populist leaders like Jean-Marie Le Pen, the father of present politician Marine Le Pen who came forward to fill the vacuum in the system with propaganda laced with anti-immigrant rhetoric, and also Euro-skepticism. Gradually their influence increased in France. In the 1986 Legislative election out of a total of 577, Le Pen clinched 35 seats. The era of mass unemployment had begun in France by that time. Le Pen blamed rising unemployment on immigrants. Since then, immigration has been an issue in French politics.
Le Pen began to receive the favour of the French mass media for whipping up emotive social issues like unemployment, poverty and so on. All these came to be included in the party’s propaganda agenda. The winner of the 2007 Presidential Election, Nicholas Sarcozy, presented Le Pen’s politics to the public in his political campaign. Thus, the political ideology of the Far-Right seeped into the mainstream of French politics. After that, Le Pen’s daughter Marine Le Pen took the stage shouting the slogan that ‘the real fight has begun’.
Marine became the mouthpiece of the Right and Far-Right as Nicholas Sarcozy’s popularity rapidly waned. She reached the final stage of the Presidential Election twice in a row. Her party was renamed ‘National Rally’. The young Jordan Bardella was brought forward as a ‘charismatic protégé’ to Le Pen. In an attempt to establish a direct link with the rank and file Marine Le Pen used to propagate vigorously “What we speak is actually the mind of millions of French people.” The truth of these words finally proved factually valid when in the month of June 2024, the ‘National Rally’ won a convincing victory in the French Legislative Election. Thus the Far-Right in French society is now a stark reality. The main thrust of their policy is to attack issues like leftism, immigration, and unemployment.
Although the ‘National Rally’ was successfully blocked in the election this year, the question arises what will happen now? According to political commentators, it was a surprise victory for the Left-wing coalition which is inherently anti-Macron. Consequently soon after the results came out, the conflict arose on the question of leadership inside the alliance.
Thus two roads are open in front of the Left. If they form the government at the call of the President and prioritize only their own programme, it is only a matter of time before they face no-confidence in the parliament, and the fall of the government is inevitable. The second path is to form a government that is in agreement with the moderate Macron coalition. In that case, their political activities (which are the product of almost a decade of persistent anti-Macron tune) will be watered down. In that case, there is a possibility that both the political lines of the left will soon lose credibility with the people.
It may be noted that although he was in a bad position before the polls, during the polls, Macron was the biggest gainer. He got the Left alliance with him by creating fear of the strategy called fascism and successfully passed the boat of election ultimately. On the other hand, the responsibility of forming the government did not rest on him, but on Jean-Luc Melenchon’s coalition. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a flamboyant politician, must know that he has to be flexible with his allies, such as socialists, communists or environmentalists. He is incapable of making any decision without considering the opinion of his coalition partners. The coalition partners have also made it clear that they are in favour of expanding the ‘Popular Front’ further in greater interests.
That is, after all, the composition of the political chessboard that has emerged with this parliamentary election in France. It is still cloaked because political dynamics might unfold unpredictable consequences to unsettle things or to maintain the status quo of this new coalition in the inherently unstable hung parliament.
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