India-US relations have been extremely vibrant and dynamic in nature. Since 01st November 1946 when both countries established formal diplomatic relations, they have experienced many junctures of historic significance. At times carrying opposing views on the common situation. From terming India and its then Prime Minister in the most ‘inappropriate language’ by the US President Nixion and Henery Kissinger in the early 1970s to acknowledging India’s ‘critical global role’, a lot has gone in between. The good part is that the change of sentiments now has a bipartisan consensus in the US. India has witnessed challenges from US policies which are acutely reflected in the US’s Cold War myopia and India’s sensitivity towards non-alignment. The inflection point in the relationship came when India adopted an open market approach in 1991, finally leaving the baggage of a socialist economy behind it. With No classic rivalry left, the US adopted a much more pragmatic global view which has the space for India’s national vision of inclusiveness.
Various pragmatic issues finally connect two independent nations with the geopolitical string. India had the challenge of providing basic necessities to its vast population and it needed to grow its economy which was struggling at the meager annual GDP growth of 5.5 % at the time. Such a growth rate would have not allowed the expansion of enough opportunities or enough vistas of development to offer jobs to the large young population of India. This was the encouragement that India had. While the US, the only global superpower left has geopolitical concerns weighing over it. It wanted a trusted and capable regional power to help it balance out its growing concerns in the region.
The relationship, or rather the new 2.0 era in mutual relationships has already seen some watershed moments that have tested the depth and expanse of resolve in both these countries. India’s challenges for gaining access to some critical technologies which the US has been extremely guarded, have been realised to an extent. The maturing of the relationship was reflected in developments that were taking place helping both to expand and upgrade the scope even further. The US support for India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), agreement for the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (2016); Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (2018); Industrial Security Agreement (2019); and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (2020).
Today Indian armed forces are operating some of the high-end US weapons systems like Apache helicopters, C-130J Super Hercules, C-17 Globemaster, MQ9B Predator Drones, P-8I Poseidons, Chinooks, MH-60R Seahawks, and M777 ultra-light howitzers. The economic relationship has seen a sharp uptrend in the last decade as India further liberalised its economic policies and rapidly scaled up key economic measures. The results have been remarkable, with industry-aligning policies in place India quickly moved up the ladder of the Ease of Doing Business index. Its GDP consistently grew at around 7% in the last decade making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Today India stands as the World’s 5th largest economy and the world’s 4th most powerful nation in terms of military power.
The harrowing times of COVID-19 which threatened to derail the global economy were mitigated due to India’s strength in domestic manufacturing and consumption enabled by timely policy tweaks. India offered an alternate and reliable destination for becoming the Global Supply Chain hub. This has many big names including American giants like Apple relocating themselves to India while others like Tesla remain deeply interested in doing so. It’s an indication of momentum that the trade volume between both these countries has surpassed $200 billion in 2023, as per data released by India’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry on 12 January 2024. Indian diaspora in the US is about four million including roughly two lakh students who account for over $ 7.7 billion yearly to the US economy.
Graduation of the relationship has proved that the foundation has gained strength and is much stronger to withstand any headwinds. The India-US relationship has also witnessed its moments of difficulties, especially in the geopolitical domain. India’s need to purchase S-400 Air Defence systems from Russia was threatened to invite US CAATSA sanctions; India’s pursuit of an independent approach towards the Russia-Ukraine war became a contentious issue in the US; and some even targeted India on the issue of import of Russian oil. In an interesting turn of events, India’s foreign minister was asked to amplify if the US is ‘fine’ with India’s decision to continue with Russian oil imports. The development took place in the presence of US Secretary of State Mr Blinken on the sidelines of the recently concluded Munich Security Conference. Not surprisingly Mr Jaishankar made light of the discussion expressing ‘satisfaction’ about India being fortunate to have ‘multiple options’ drawing laughter from everyone around including Mr Blinken.
It was a reflection of faith in the other side. Diplomacy has this strange finesse of expressing something while implying something else, and interestingly both sides clearly understand the conversation! The year ahead will remain one of the most challenging yet in the bilateral relationship which will continue to test their resolve to move together. India will carry certain expectations from the US, primarily to ensure it respects New Delhi’s strategic autonomy and doesn’t fall prey to the domestic compulsion of lecturing it on matters of global concern; as India pursues its developmental goals it will remain hungry for energy needs and will expect to explore all possibilities; the US will be expected to keep the Middle-East away from boiling to prevent spiraling of oil prices; the freedom of navigation is either maintained or enforced across the Indo-Pacific including East & South China seas; India’s role as net security provider in the Indian Ocean remains unambiguously firm; while global trade continues to flow through sea lanes and the current disruption remains temporary in nature; the strengthening of alternate supply chains through India gets further boost; availability of technology especially critical ones in space domain will be something India will be looking at, as it ramps up its efforts of sending Indian astronauts in the space.
On the other hand, India will also need to step up on its responsibilities commensurate to its ‘presence’ among the comity of nations; India must push towards a greater role in the Indian Ocean while enhancing its stakes and participation in the QUAD; It must continue to further ease out policy framework to encourage greater collaboration and transparency in trade and commerce. The relationship between the two countries has tremendous potential but it must navigate very carefully with the road bumps on the way. Recent incidents of the US filling chargesheet against an alleged plot to kill an individual while ignoring red flags of threats issued to India’s San Fransisco consulate make for a sombre reflection. A lot still needs to be done by both if the true potential is to be realised. The year ahead will remain a test of the ‘faith’ between the two great democracies as the world anxiously looks for global stability.
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