Introduction
As the world grapples with the uncertainty posed by the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the US offensive in Iraq and Syria, one thing is certain, West Asia is the US’ problem child. Currently, the ongoing strife between Israel and Hamas threatens to trigger skirmishes across West Asia, with the United States still at the helm of determining the nature of peace in the region. In such a situation, the Indo-Pacific theatre is left somewhat unattended. Being a major power in a multipolar world order with China as a rising challenger to its position, the United States must ensure that strategic stability of the Indo-Pacific region is not a trade-off for ensuring peace in West Asia, by employing its major regional partners to deliberate cooperation in the region.
Tensions Continue in the Indo-Pacific
According to the 2022 US National Security Strategy, the US is an Indo-Pacific power, however, while the US has been preoccupied with the war in West Asia, maritime skirmishes and tensions have escalated in the Indo-Pacific region. The most notable being the on-and-off maritime dispute between the Philippines and China over the Second Thomas Shoal. In the coming months, the Philippines plans to upgrade the territorial features of its outposts by installing a desalination machine at a warship stationed on the island amidst its larger plans to boost the nation’s offensive capabilities. This announcement comes after tensions were recorded between the Philippines and China after the latter allegedly rammed a supply boat aboard the former’s Chief of Staff near the island in December 2023. Separately, the region is liable to stay on a strategic edge as China continues to persuade states of the Indo-Pacific through economic, military, and political means to acknowledge its strategic claims across most of the South China Sea. This was most recently witnessed in China’s new national map, released in August 2023.
India as a Diplomatic Partner for the US
As China continues to be reluctant to lead emerging and regional powers during geopolitical crises, the onus of juggling multiple arenas of war has fallen solely on the United States and its allies and partners. It is therefore only fitting that major emerging powers of the Indo-Pacific, such as India, embrace their role as diplomatic and strategic brokers in the region. In the recent US-India 2+2 dialogue held in New Delhi in November 2023, the two nations recognised the scope of their strategic partnership in defence cooperation, technology, regional conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region and other arenas, including the Israel-Hamas war.
In addition, the two countries announced their plans to initiate developmental projects in the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Vietnam as a part of their attempt to give their association a ‘global’ perspective. India’s strategically autonomous temperament ensures that it can develop independent relationships with each nation in the region. By offering the Philippines a line of credit for defence purchases after committing the delivery of the BrahMos Missile in June 2023 for USD 374.96 million, India has moved a step further in being a security provider for the region as well.
Along with this, India has also extended cooperation and dialogue with 14 Pacific Island Countries (PIC) as a follow-up to the nation’s discussions at the QUAD leaders forum in Japan in May 2023. Simultaneously, on May 22, 2023, the US and Papua New Guinea(PNG) entered into a Defence Security Pact which aimed at enhancing surveillance of PNG’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Although the two nations hosted separate meetings with the PIC, India likely played the role of an unofficial moderator between Papua New Guinea and the US.
Challenges for a Prospective Role
Despite India showcasing significant progress in its ability to shoulder responsibility in the Indo-Pacific, two major challenges need to be addressed. The first is the Taiwan Strait Crisis and India’s attempts to stay detached. To become an effective regional power, in tandem with the US, recognition of the strait as a strategic linchpin for greater stability in the Indo-Pacific is imperative for India. While the nation is vocal about the apparent aggressiveness of China in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean Region, India will have to acknowledge Taiwan’s territorial vulnerability in the face of continued Chinese claims over Taiwan and its islands in the international shipping channel.
The second challenge is India’s defence allocation for the Indian Navy. In a statement at a conclave in November 2023, the Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral R Hari Kumar, remarked that the Indian Naval forces target acquisition of 165-175 ships by 2035. According to the 2024-2025 Interim Defence Budget, the Indian Government has allocated INR 6,21,540 crore for defence out of which INR 1.72 lakh crore has been allotted for capital expenditure for the tri-services (army, navy, and the airforce). Within this, around INR 1.5 lakh crores shall be infused this financial year for naval shipbuilding, INR 23,800 crores for naval fleet, and INR 6830 crores for naval dockyards.
Along with this, the country aims to allocate INR 7651 crores towards the Indian Coast Guard and increase its competence in patrolling and surveillance. Despite being formulated with good intentions, the capital expenditure has only showcased a moderate jump of INR one lakh crore from 2023. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the government will be able to successfully undertake the planned modernisation of existing fleets, and acquire Deck base fighter aircraft, ships, submarines, survey vessels, UAVs, Specialist Vehicles etc. from its current Capex.
Conclusion
As India is one of the major regional powers of the Indo-Pacific, it is time that the nation realises its potential to be the face of the region and shoulder more responsibility. Thereafter, as the US manages the crisis in West Asia, India may use its elevated status as a key strategic partner of the United States to encourage and broker collaboration, stability and strategic cooperation between itself and Indo-Pacific states. There are however, challenges that India must overcome to be able to take on the role of a diplomatic partner of the US in the region and work in tandem with the latter to ensure stability in a tense region.
Primary Sources
2022 National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The United States of America, see website, Biden-Harris Administration’s National Security Strategy.pdf (whitehouse.gov), accessed on 08 February 2024.
Joint Statement: Fifth Annual India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, see website, Joint Statement: Fifth Annual India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue (mea.gov.in), accessed on 08 February 2024.
Interim Budget 2024, Ministry of Defence, Government of India, see website, pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2001375, accessed on 08 February 2024
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‘Rhetoric Escalates in China-Philippines South China Sea Dispute’, Al Jazeera, Article (Qatar), see website, Rhetoric escalates in China-Philippines South China Sea dispute | South China Sea News | Al Jazeera, accessed on 07 February 2024
Rhea Mogul, ‘China’s New National Map Has Angered its Neighbors’, CNN, Article (USA), see website, China’s new national map has angered India, Malaysia and the Philippines | CNN, accessed on 08 February, 2024
T Brajesh, ‘ India, U.S. Firm Up Plan to Counter China’s Aggression in the Indo-Pacific’, The Sunday Guardian, Article (India), see website, India, U.S. firm up plan to counter China’s aggression in Indo-Pacific – The Sunday Guardian Live, accessed on 08 February 2024.
‘India Renews Offer to Finance Philippine Defence Upgrade with Line Credit’, Philstar Global, Article (Philippines), see website, India renews offer to finance Philippine defense upgrade with line credit | Philstar.com, accessed on 10 February, 2024
Anirban Bhaumik, ‘ India Gives Philippines Line of Credit for Defence Requirement’, The Sunday Guardian, Article (India), see website, India gives Philippines Line of Credit for defence requirement (deccanherald.com), accessed on 10 February, 2024
Kirsty Needham, ‘ US, Papua New Guinea Sign Defence Agreement As Modi Pledges Support for Pacific Islands’, Reuters, Article (USA), see website, US, Papua New Guinea sign defence agreement as Modi pledges support for Pacific Islands | Reuters, accessed on 09 February, 2024.
‘Navy Playing Key Role in Keeping Indo-Pacific Region Free and Rules-Based: Admiral Hari Kumar’, Hindustan Times, Article (India), see website, Navy playing key role in keeping Indo-Pacific region free and rules-based: Admiral Hari Kumar | Bangalore News – The Indian Express, accessed on 09 February 2024.
‘Budget 2024: Defence Budget Sees Outlay of 6,21, 540. 85 Crore’, The Hindu Businessline, Article (India), see website, Budget 2024: Defence Budget sees outlay of Rs 6,21,540.85 crore – The Hindu BusinessLine, accessed on 10 February 2024.
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