The 21st century has ushered in a transformative era in which global trade is no longer driven solely by economic logic but increasingly by geopolitical considerations. The earlier phase of globalisation, focused on welfare enhancement, development, and resource optimisation, has given way to a highly strategic global environment where nations use trade as a lever for political influence, national security, and technological dominance. The resurgence of protectionist tendencies among the advanced economies, alongside large-scale disruptions caused by global conflicts and economic realignments, has fundamentally recast the foundations of international commerce.
This shift became particularly pronounced in the post covid years, marking the reintroduction of assertive tariff policies that reverberated across global supply chains. Simultaneously, the Russia–Ukraine conflict triggered the most significant trade restructuring in decades, compelling countries to reevaluate long-standing energy, technology, and raw material dependencies. As a result, the period from 2020 to 2024 reflects not merely a cyclical adjustment but a deep structural transformation: global trade has fragmented into competing blocs, with new alliances, diversified production networks, and resource-driven collaborations shaping the emerging global economic order.
Geopolitics Reshaping the Purpose of Global Trade
The purpose of global trade has undergone a significant conceptual overhaul in recent years. Historically grounded in the principles of mutual welfare and multilateral cooperation, trade promoted economic stability through shared prosperity and interdependence. However, the geopolitical environment of the 21st century has redefined this logic. Nations increasingly deploy trade policies as strategic instruments to assert influence, control technological ecosystems, and safeguard national interests. The growing tendency to impose export controls, apply punitive tariffs, weaponise sanctions, and regulate supply chains reflects how trade has evolved into a geopolitical tool of immense power.
Competition in advanced technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing has intensified, and nations now use trade restrictions to prevent rivals from accessing critical technologies or strategic materials. Tariff wars, once framed as measures to counter unfair practices, now reinforce asymmetries between nations by consolidating monopolistic positions of powerful countries while shrinking the policy space for emerging economies. This changing narrative suggests that trade today is less an instrument of mutual development and more a mechanism of geopolitical leverage. The evolution of trade, therefore, mirrors the broader restructuring of global power, where efficiency is secondary to influence, resilience, and strategic dominance.
Shifting Alliances and the Rise of Multipolar Trade Networks
Global trade is shifting from a predominantly Western-led structure to a distinctly multipolar configuration, with emerging economies playing increasingly pivotal roles. The volatility created by the pandemic, US–China technological rivalry, and the Russia–Ukraine war has prompted a global rethinking of supply chains, encouraging countries to diversify away from single-source dependencies. Multinational corporations are redesigning production networks through near-shoring, friend-shoring, and multi-regional manufacturing models that prioritise resilience over cost minimization. Regional alliances such as ASEAN, BRICS+, and the African Continental Free Trade Area are gaining importance as alternative growth corridors. Meanwhile, digital trade, renewable energy ecosystems, critical minerals, and green technologies are emerging as the next battlegrounds of economic competition. As countries race to secure access to rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and green hydrogen, the geography of trade is being reshaped by technological imperatives and sustainability priorities. This trend reflects the rise of a multipolar trading world—a system defined by overlapping spheres of influence, diversified partnerships, and a strategic quest for autonomy. The fragmentation of supply chains and the strengthening of regional blocs mark a clear departure from the hyper-globalisation phase of the early 2000s and signal the emergence of a globally competitive yet regionally dependent trade architecture.
Russia’s Trade Realignment: A Case Study of Geopolitical Influence
Russia’s trade patterns between 2020 and 2024 offer one of the clearest illustrations of geopolitical disruptions transforming commercial relationships. Following the imposition of sweeping Western sanctions after the Ukraine conflict, Russia experienced a dramatic restructuring of its international trade profile. The United States and the European Union, once major trading partners, reduced engagement to historical lows. Meanwhile, Russia redirected its trade flows toward Asia, deepening economic integration primarily with China and India. This shift reconfigured global energy markets, redirected industrial supply chains, and revealed the strategic centrality of Asia in the emerging global order. These trends confirm that Russia’s disengagement from the West has been matched by a strategic pivot toward Asia, effectively altering global trade balances.
Russia’s Trade with Major Partners (USD Billion)
| Year / Partner | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Russia- USA – Total Trade | 22.66 | 37.09 | 16.79 | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| Russia – EU – Total Trade | 189 | 283 | 265 | 93 | 73 |
| Russia- China – Total Trade | 107 | 145 | 190 | 239 | 244 |
| Russia- India – Total Trade | 7 | 11 | 42 | 64 | 68.7 |
Source: NDIM NEO Research Centre-NNRC
Compiled from the Trade Map
Significance of Russia in the Trade of the USA, EU, China, and India
The significance of Russia in the trade portfolios of major economies mirrors the larger geopolitical reorganisation that unfolded between 2020 and 2024. The United States and European Union drastically scaled down their economic dependence on Russia as part of a deliberate strategy to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical instability. Their share of trade with Russia dropped to nearly negligible levels by 2024. In contrast, China and India strengthened their engagement with Russia, driven by pragmatic considerations such as access to discounted crude oil, fertilisers, industrial inputs, and strategic minerals. These trends indicate that while the West pursues geopolitical distancing from Russia, Asia embraces economic pragmatism, reshaping global supply-demand patterns. The divergence in trade significance underscores how geopolitics is reshaping global alignments.
Share of Russia’s bilateral trade in the Total Trade of Major Economies
| Country | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| USA | 0.59 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| EU | 1.83 | 2.21 | 1.87 | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| China | 2.30 | 2.40 | 3.01 | 4.02 | 3.96 |
| India | 1.09 | 1.14 | 3.55 | 5.80 | 5.95 |
Source: NDIM NEO Research Centre-NNRC,
Compiled from the Trade Map
Russia as a Key Resource Supplier in a Fragmenting World
The structure of imports by major economies from Russia underscores the enduring significance of Russian commodities in global supply chains. Despite geopolitical tensions, Russia remains a dominant global supplier of energy, fertilisers, metals, and raw materials—inputs critical to agriculture, manufacturing, and energy security. India’s reliance extends across diverse sectors, including fuels, fertilisers, pearls, chemicals, and cement. China’s imports centre on fuels, aluminium, ores, and fishery products vital for its manufacturing-intensive economy. The EU, historically a large importer of Russian fuels and metals, has diversified but still reflects traces of structural dependence.
Conclusion
The evolution of global trade from 2020 to 2024 reflects a historic shift away from welfare-driven globalisation toward a strategic, geopolitically anchored system. Russia’s dramatic trade realignment, marked by disengagement from the West and deeper integration with China and India, epitomises the emergence of a fragmented global economy structured around competing geopolitical blocs. Trade has become an instrument of strategic leverage, with sanctions, tariffs, and technology controls reshaping economic flows. The future of international commerce will be defined increasingly by resilience, diversification, and strategic autonomy rather than cost efficiency alone. Nations that secure technological leadership, strengthen regional partnerships, and ensure access to critical resources will shape the contours of 21st-century global trade. This is not merely a new phase of globalisation; it is the dawn of a multipolar economic order where power, technology, and geopolitical alignment determine economic destiny.
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