In the midst of internal security imbalance cum soaring relations vis-à-vis Dhaka, New Delhi could adopt a soft cum muscular approach towards maintaining robust diplomatic ties and economic prowess in the Northeastern borders.
The recent ouster of long-time PM Sheikh Hasina has created a sense of uncertainty in India’s Neighbourhood, which is already under a lot of heat due to soaring debts in small littoral countries alongside suspicions of external interference in order to alter the status quo. Furthermore, dissent may have been witnessed regarding the treatment of minorities and students because of the quota system initiated by the pro-India Hasina government which led to a tough approach being adopted by an army to set up a temporary government and even the power vacuum created could have been capitalized and misused by different political parties and the Islamists.
Moreover, in order to appease the Border Guard Bangladesh Forces (BGB ) and Yunus [1]government, there has to be a way to make arrangements for ousted PM Sheikh Hasina’s political asylum[2] instead of India being a country of her residence, where in case if New Delhi maintains a neutral stance towards her aggressive remarks towards the opposition and existing governance structures there are opportunity costs prevailing with her presence which means a pro-China government under BNP, furthering illegal drug trafficking, humanitarian impasses and radical extremism could even fuel nationalist sentiment and unrest against illegal migrants residing in the Northeastern states of Assam, Mizoram, Tripura etc., fuelling regional instability.
Dhaka and Non-Traditional Security Threats
Recently. in response to Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India, the BGB forces[3]put barriers and blockages on the Indo-Bangladesh border, which is further hampering inclusive development of the adjoining northeastern states which were left out of the development schemes and initiatives pre liberalisation due to insurgencies and weak institutions. The region has a lot of scope in terms of connectivity towards Southeast Asia but if this advantage is shrouded by geopolitical cum extremist agenda, it could prove catastrophic in New Delhi’s overtures in collaborating[4]with her Southeast Asian partners in order counter-balance rising belligerence from her immediate neighbourhood.
The increasing political arbitrariness in Bangladesh has led to the resurgence of the Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam, which are against the secular ideas of the State and have raised concerns of radicalism and extremism spilling over the borders across India. This creates an incentive for New Delhi to tighten its border mechanisms by fostering border development through quality infrastructure.
Radical Borders: How can New Delhi Sustain Herself
In view of the radicalisation mobilisation of youth in a globalised society being carried out by non-state actors, it is imperative for New Delhi to diversify her capabilities in multifaceted security dimensions, in view of emerging non-conventional security tools being adopted by great powers in pursuit of their survival in contemporary times. Even though, border modernisation is being carried out maybe due to a lack of consensus between the centre and state, there may be a bottleneck behind the slow infrastructural development in the boundaries.
Moreover, increased illegal migration, and drug trafficking[5]in the border have further intensified, which means that New Delhi must lay emphasis on putting forth modern surveillance tools and infrastructure alongside her borders so that the movement of people and goods are curtailed plus organised instead of the process being carried out impulsively and mis-calculatingly.
Observing Md Yunus’s soft stance on the minorities New Delhi should put forth robust cum resilient norms for the settlement of the students and migrants, in order to incentivise them and shape a positive perception of them through economic cum cultural cooperation with her Eastern Neighbour.
Connectivity is undoubtedly a new tool of competition taking place in the Indian periphery where Bangladesh has the largest boundary, covering a distance of 4096 km, even a bridge for the insurgency cum landlocked northeast region, a beneficiary of development if rule-based order is maintained. Moreover, The amount of assistance provided by New Delhi in terms of trade and economic cooperation cannot be counted out, it should be fostered, witnessed through the trade of two countries reaching USD $14.01 billion [6]and a line of credit costing USD$ 7.862 billion[7]been given to Dhaka, which the latter will ignore if any great power incentivises her through projects and border infrastructure.
It is imperative that the once healthy ties should be brought back through engagement in multilateral institutions such as the BBIN and BIMSTEC, which are vital organs to regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region. The Act East Policy needs to be amended as per evolving strategic manoeuvres so that new players are catered to inclusively and instead of furthering military capabilities in order to achieve power parity with Beijing, economic cooperation and soft power is the gateway to fostering win-to-win and B2B cooperation between competing neighbours.
Amidst uncertainty, New Delhi has enhanced its border control measures to counter the human influx of refugees and protect the sovereignty of the nation. While in most cases traditional security aims at controlling the movement of refugees and population density in the border region, the amalgamation of the humanitarian crisis and cybercrimes requires a comprehensive analysis of India’s border management system.
Way Forward
However, the only route to silently overcome geopolitical disadvantages could be through promoting a public-private model in economic development to foster quality infrastructure and robust economic growth through collaboration with smaller global multilateral frameworks and like-minded partnerships.
In order to implement various investments and market reforms, the only direction and route could be through consensus building and decision-making alongside decentralised planning, whereby bringing multiple parties and groupings, civil society groups to develop to increase awareness on emerging strategic threats emanating from border security.
New Delhi should meet the securitisation of militarisation with cooperation in the form of sharing of information, technology and people-to-people contact from the other side of the border. It is therefore necessary to have cross-border intelligence monitoring and cooperation with Dhaka to combat this transnational crime in an effort to enhance long-term border security. Moreover, tackling the socio-economic vulnerability in the border area may contribute to the neutralization of the mentioned criminal structures by enhancing local resilience.
[1] Saqlain Rizve,Bangladesh’s New Border Stance Signals a Shift in Its Approach to India, the Diplomat, September 4, 2024 , https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/bangladeshs-new-border-stance-signals-a-shift-in-its-approach-to-india/
[2] ET Online, Sheikh Hasina should be quiet till Bangladesh seeks extradition: Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, Economic Times, September 5, 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/sheikh-hasina-should-be-quiet-till-bangladesh-seeks-extradition-chief-advisor-muhammad-yunus/articleshow/113084155.cms?from=mdr
[3] Arif Islam Mithu, Border Guard Bangladesh tightens security along border with India, September 1st ,2024 ,https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/border-guard-bangladesh-tightens-security-along-border-with-india-101725170552689.html
[4] Rattan Chand Sharma, Bangladesh crisis: India’s Security Challenges and Strategy to Tackle Them, India Sentinels ,August ,9 2024,https://www.indiasentinels.com/opinion/bangladesh-crisis-indias-security-concerns-and-strategy-to-tackle-them-6415#google_vignette
[5]Towkir Hussain, Bangladesh’s Non-Traditional Security Complex, Australian Institute of International Affairs ,March 3rd ,2024, https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/bangladeshs-non-traditional-security-complex/
[6] Brief on India-Bangladesh Relations, Ministry of External Affairs, August 2024, https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/India-Bangladesh2024.pdf
[7] Lines of Credit For Development Projects, Ministry of External Affairs, https://www.mea.gov.in/Lines-of-Credit-for-Development-Projects.htm
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